On the Modelling and Evaluation of Security of Energy Supply in Regional Environments

  • Dan SerbanescuEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security book series (NAPSC)


This paper presents some approaches used in the modelling of the Security of Energy Supply for the case of regional environments, with some specific results obtained for specific cases from the European environment


Fault Tree Risk Governance Initiate Event Risk Metrics Probabilistic Risk Assessment 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Colli et al., 2008, ColliA., Serbanescu D., PRA-Type Study Adapted to the Multi-crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cells Manufacture Process, ESREL 2008Google Scholar
  2. Descartes R., 1637, Discours de la méthode, Paris, Garnier - Flammarion, 1966, edition Discourse on Method (1637).Google Scholar
  3. Haimes, Yacov Y., 2004, Risk Modeling, Assessment and Management, 2nd Edition, Wiley & Sons, New Jersey.Google Scholar
  4. Hansson S.O., 2000, Myths on Risk Talk at the conference Stockholm thirty years on. Progress achieved and challenges ahead in international environmental co-operation. Swedish Ministry of the Environment, June 17-18, 2000 Royal Institute of Technology, StockholmGoogle Scholar
  5. Howard et al, 1984, Howard R.A. and Matheson J.E., (editors), Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, 2 volumes (1984), Menlo Park CA: Strategic Decisions GroupGoogle Scholar
  6. Jaynes, E. T., 2003, Probability Theory - The Logic of Science, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKGoogle Scholar
  7. Kato, Tokyo, 1995. Perturbation Theory for Linear Operators”, Springer Verlag, Germany, ISBN 3-540-58661Google Scholar
  8. Mc Comas, W. 1996, Ten Myths of science: Re examining what we know, vol. 96, School Science & Mathematics, 01-01-1996, pp 10Google Scholar
  9. Maturana et al. 1980, Maturana H.R.,Varela F.J. Autopoiésis y Cognición. Dordrecht, holanda: D. Reidel, 1980.Google Scholar
  10. Peirce, C.S., 1931, Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peirce, 8 vols. Edited by Charles Hartshorne, Paul Weiss, Arthur Burks (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1931-1958, © Relcon Scandpower AB, 2008. RiskSpectrum® PSA Professional, developed and maintained by Relcon Scandpower AB in Sweden,
  11. Serbanescu D. 1991., Serbanescu D., A New Approach in the Decision Phases of the PSA Studies, PSA91, Vienna, 1991Google Scholar
  12. Serbanescu D. 2001, Serbanescu D., The use of the decision theory and probabilistic analyses in the npp licensing decision process, IAEA-CN-82/28, 2001Google Scholar
  13. Serbanescu 2005a. Some insights on issues related to specifics of the use of probability, risk, uncertainty and logic in PRA studies, Int. J. Critical Infrastructures, Vol. 1, Nos. 2/3, 2005Google Scholar
  14. Serbanescu 2005b. Integrated Risk Assessment, ICRESH 2005, Bombay, India.Google Scholar
  15. Serbanescu 2007, Serbanescu, D., Risk Informed Decision Making, Lecture presented at VALDOC Summer School on Risk Issues, Smoegen (Sweden), Vol. Karita Research Sweden (Organiser), JRC PB/2007/IE/5019Google Scholar
  16. Serbanescu et al, 2007a, Serbanescu, D. & Kirchsteiger C., 2007a. Some methodological aspects on a risk informed support for decisions on specific complex systems objectives, ICAP 2007Google Scholar
  17. Serbanescu et al, 2007b, Serbanescu D., Kircsteiger C., Some methodological aspects on a risk informed support for decisions on specific complex systems objectives, EC DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, presented at SRA Conference 2007, NetherlandsGoogle Scholar
  18. Serbanescu 2008, Serbanescu D., Some aspects, models and results on the use of PRA – Nuclear for the modeling of risks on hydrogen installations – preliminary results of the work performed in the HYSAFE/HYQRA project in 2008/ Feb. 2009 JRC Petten, Presented in HYSAFE workshop Tirennia, Italy 2008Google Scholar
  19. Serbanescu et al 2008a, Serbanescu D. &Vetere Arellano A.L., SES RISK a new method to support decisions on energy supply, ESREL 2008Google Scholar
  20. Serbanescu et al 2008b, Serbanescu D., Colli A., Vetere Arellano A.L., On some aspects related to the use of integrated risk analyses for the decision making process, including its use in the non-nuclear applications, ESREL 2008Google Scholar
  21. Serbanescu et al 2008c, Serbanescu D. & Vetere Arellano A.L., Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM), in the report CARGO- sixth framework programme-Citizens and governance in a knowledge-based society, Proposal/Contract no.: FP6-036720 Comparison of Approaches to Risk Governance WP1 – 30 January 2008Google Scholar
  22. Serbanescu 2009, On some aspects of performing probabilistic risk assessment for regional renewable energy systems (T2-G.2), SRA Conference 2009 Risk Analysis: The Evolution of a Science T2-G Symposium: Overcoming Risks Inherent to Renewable Energy Technologies and Systems, Baltimore, United States of America December 6–9, 2009Google Scholar
  23. Serbanescu et al 2010a, Serbanescu D., Baraldi D., Vetere Arellano A.L. Some aspects of the practical use of probabilistic risk analyses for the evaluation of risks in hydrogen installations, EC DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Petten, Netherlands, DGENER D2Nuclear safety, transport and decommissioning, Luxembourg, 2010Google Scholar
  24. Serbanescu et al 2010b, Serbanescu D., Baraldi D., Vetere Arellano A.L, On some specific methodological aspects of using probabilistic risk analyses for the evaluation of risks in hydrogen, EC DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Petten, Netherlands, DGENER D2Nuclear safety, transport and decommissioning, Luxembourg, 2010Google Scholar
  25. Smithson, Michel J., 2000, Human judgment and imprecise probabilities, web site of the imprecise probabilities project 1997-2000 by Michel J. Smithson and the Imprecise Probabilities Project
  26. USNRC 1983, PRA Procedures Guide. A guide for the performance of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear power Plants (1983) USNRC, NUREG/CR-2300, February 1.Google Scholar
  27. USNRC 1998, Regulatory Guide 1.174, An approach for using PRA in Risk Informed Decisions on plant specific changes to the licensing basis, July 1998.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.DG ENER D2 Unit Nuclear Safety, Decommissioning and TransportLuxembourgLuxembourg

Personalised recommendations