Abstract
Ocean modelling, and more recently, ocean reanalysis or ocean forecasting system perform scientific assessment in order to evaluate errors and accuracy, but also to identify main drawbacks and possible improvements. Intercomparison has been a way to achieve such assessment among several numerical experiments. It is also a more robust approach for ocean state and forecast estimations. An historical overview of ocean model validation bringing to intercomparison activities is proposed here. Intercomparison projects performed over the last two decades by the oceanographic modelling community are presented and discussed here, in terms of objectives, and methodologies. Specific aspects for model, reanalysis, or ocean forecast experiment intercomparison are then detailed. Finally a particular focus is made on intercomparison studies performed in the framework of GODAE.
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Notes
- 1.
Hindcast refers in the assimilation oceanographic community to ocean estimates obtained with an assimilated run where all observations are available, usually in delayed mode and numerical simulations performed over a past period.
- 2.
Nowcast refers in the assimilation oceanographic community to ocean estimates obtained with an assimilated run in real time or near-real time where all possible observations are not yet available. This is the nominal “past estimates” that are provided by operational system over the previous days before the forecast.
- 3.
Performance has the same meaning than the title of this chapter, and is considered here in terms of usefulness and efficiency for users of ocean products provided by the OFS. In the framework of operational oceanography validation, a more specific definition is given later in this lecture notes.
- 4.
Robustness (the quality of being able to withstand stresses, pressures, or changes in procedure or circumstance) is considered here in terms of OFS capacity to provide a consistent behavior and results under similar circumstances.
- 5.
Accuracy is considered here as the degree of closeness of ocean estimates provided by the OFS to its actual true value. In the framework of operational oceanography validation, a more specific definition is given later in this lecture notes.
- 6.
Reliability is considered here as the ability of the OFS to perform its required functions and provide ocean estimates under stated conditions while it is routinely operated.
- 7.
GCM: Global Circulation Model.
- 8.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
- 9.
United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
- 10.
Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set.
- 11.
RMS: root mean square.
- 12.
This OceanObs’09 community white paper is available at http://www.oceanobs09.net/cwp/index.php.
- 13.
Global Synthesis and Observations Panel, (http://www.clivar.org/organization/gsop/synthesis/synthesis.php).
- 14.
The RAPID array uses standard observational techniques—moored instruments that measure conductivity, temperature and pressure, as well as bottom pressure recorders—to measure density and pressure gradients across the North Atlantic, from which one can readily calculate the basin overturning circulation and heat transport.
- 15.
In the framework of assimilation the background is the state of the ocean model prior any correction by the assimilation method.
- 16.
Here in the assimilation framework, the analysis is the production of an accurate image of the true state of the ocean at a given time, represented in a model as a collection of numbers. An analysis can be useful in itself as a comprehensive and self-consistent diagnostic of the ocean. It can also be used as input data to another operation, notably as the initial state for a numerical ocean forecast, or as a data retrieval to be used as a pseudo-observation.
- 17.
The innovation is the discrepancies between observations and ocean model state, that is the vector of departures at the observation points.
- 18.
Short-term ocean prediction: between 5 days and 2 weeks.
- 19.
See footnote 16.
- 20.
See footnote 15.
- 21.
See footnote 16.
- 22.
See Ocean & Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility at http://www.osi-saf.org/.
- 23.
- 24.
Acoustic Dopler Current Profiler.
- 25.
See footnote 23.
- 26.
See footnote 22.
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Hernandez, F. (2011). Performance of Ocean Forecasting Systems—Intercomparison Projects. In: Schiller, A., Brassington, G. (eds) Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0332-2_23
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