Abstract
Before writing this editorial, I read again the one I wrote last year. It is a valuable exercise. I found that many predictions we made at that time turned out to be right. Most of the trends that we identified then continued to materialize in the past year, but we were too optimistic on security of supply improvement and competitiveness growth in the retail market.
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Notes
- 1.
Last year’s biggest discovery was the Tupi field in Rio bay in Brazil, containing an estimate of 5 to 8 billion barrels of oil. It is located more than 250 km off the coast. The oil is trapped around 7,000 meters below sea level; above it are 2,000 meters of water and up to 2,000 meters of hot high pressure volatile salt, among other factors.
- 2.
IEA forecast: In 2008 demand should reach 86.8 mb/d. It is 0.8% or 0.7 mb/d increase versus 2007, but it is 0.1 mb/d lower than previously estimated. Forecast for 2009 is 87.6 mb/d, which is 1.0% growth year on year and 0.14mb/d lower than previously estimated.
- 3.
IOC : International Oil Company (or Major)
- 4.
International Energy Agency Nov 2007 report
- 5.
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is an arrangement under the Kyoto protocol allowing industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (called Annex 1 countries) to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries, thus acquiring emission rights.
- 6.
The Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism is an arrangement under the Kyoto protocol allowing Annex 1 countries to earn emission reduction units from an emission-reduction project in another Annex 1 country.
- 7.
International Energy Agency November 2007 report
- 8.
- 9.
Capgemini “Demand Response” study, in collaboration with VaasaETT and Enerdata, shows if these programs are implemented actively, they could achieve 25 to 50% of the EU’s 2020 energy savings and CO2 emission reductions targets.
- 10.
Source: EFI and New Energy finance report
- 11.
IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency
- 12.
Point of View « How to sustain the nuclear renaissance », by Colette Lewiner and Alva Qian, Capgemini
- 13.
UCTE: Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity
- 14.
2015 corresponds to the commissioning of many planned LNG regasification infrastructures.
- 15.
- 16.
TSO : Transmission System Operator
- 17.
UCTE Transmission Development Plan, edition 2008
- 18.
Capgemini European distribution benchmarking survey 2008.
- 19.
There is usually a delay of six to nine months for oil price fluctuation to be reflected on gas prices, mainly due to long term gas supply contracts.
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Lewiner, C. (2010). A strategic overview of the European energy markets. In: Lewiner, C. (eds) European Energy Markets Observatory. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0102-1_1
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