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Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia pp 85–104Cite as

Observation and Geophysical Causes of Present-Day Sea-Level Rise

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Abstract

The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) sea-level assessment has significantly narrowed the gap between the observations and the geophysical causes of sea-level rise than the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR). The observed present-day (1900–current) sea-level rise is approximately 1.8–2.2 mm/year. The unexplained discrepancy (observed compared with the sum of all known geophysical contributions to sea-level rise) dropped from 1.83 to 1.29 mm/year. A post-2007 IPCC FAR sea-level assessment study covering modern satellite measurement data span (2003–2008) indicates significant narrowing of the sea-level budget disagreement over IPCC TAR, to 0.44 mm/year. However, a review of more recent studies including the mountain glacier and ice-sheet mass balance estimates and the estimated sea-level fall from human impoundment of water in reservoirs reveal that the discrepancy is now up to 1.42 mm/year, drastically larger than the current assessment (0.44 mm/year). The unexplained sea-level signal represents 71% of the observed sea-level rise (∼2.0 mm/year). Major geophysical contributors to sea-level rise identified which potentially have the largest errors include the ice-sheet mass balance, the knowledge of glacial isostatic adjustment forward models underneath the ice-sheets and the ocean, mountain glaciers and ice caps, and the anthropogenic effect of human impoundment of water in reservoirs and dams. Integrated analysis and interpretation using modern satellite and in situ measurements could narrow the uncertainty between the observations and the explained contributions from each of the geophysical sources to sea-level rise.

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Abbreviations

FAR:

Fourth Assessment Report

TAR:

Third Assessment Report

UNEP:

United Nations Environment Program

WMO:

World Meteorological Organization

GIA:

glacial isostatic adjustment

GRACE:

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

MBT:

mechanical bathythermographs

PMSL:

permanent service for mean sea-level

LGM:

last glacial melt

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge Philip Woodworth, UK’s Permanent Service for Mean Sea-Level (PSMSL), for providing the tide gauge records, NASA and CNES for the TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1 radar altimetry data, ESA for the ERS-1/-2 and Envisat altimetry data, US Navy via NOAA’s Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry for the Geosat and GFO altimetry data, NASA and GFZ for the GRACE data via University of Texas Center for Space Research and JPL-PODAAC, M. Ishii at Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan, for the thermal sea-level data, D. Peliter, H. Wang, and P. Wu for providing the glacial isostatic adjustment models, and D. Wingham at University College London for the ERS-1/-2 altimetry derived Antarctic ­ice-sheet elevation data. This research is supported by grants from NASA and from the Ohio State University’s Climate, Water and Carbon Program. Chung-yen Kuo is supported by grants from the National Cheng Kung University, and from the National Science Council, Taiwan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Geodetic Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, 275 Mendenhall Lab, 125 S. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA

    C. K. Shum

  2. Department of Geomatics, National Cheng Kung University, No.1, Ta-Hsueh Road, Taiwan, 701, Taiwan

    Chung-Yen Kuo

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  1. Coffey Rd 2021, COLUMBUS, 43210-1043, Ohio, USA

    Rattan Lal

  2. Div. Agricultural Meteorology, World Meteorological Organization, avenue de la Paix 7bis, Geneve, 1211, Switzerland

    Mannava V.K. Sivakumar

  3. , Dept. of Soil, Water and Environment, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

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  4. , Dept. of Soil, Water and Environment, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    A.H.M. Mustafizur Rahman

  5. OARDC Piketon Station, Shyville Road 1864, Piketon, 45661, USA

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Shum, C.K., Kuo, CY. (2010). Observation and Geophysical Causes of Present-Day Sea-Level Rise. In: Lal, R., Sivakumar, M., Faiz, S., Mustafizur Rahman, A., Islam, K. (eds) Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9516-9_7

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