Abstract
Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are very critical for taking the proper decisions about search and rescue operations, as well as rendering humanitarian assistance. Loss computations are started as soon as input data (earthquake source parameters) are available. The efforts are made to issue a likely assessment as quickly as possible (within 30–60 min in most cases). Improvement of the procedure is sought to shorten this delay. The chapter provides a description of simulation models used for fatality and injury assessment, based on buildings and structures which have suffered different damage states during strong earthquakes. The databases on buildings and population distribution, with global coverage, used for expected casualty estimation in emergency mode are analysed.
As information on the built environment is not homogeneous for all earthquake-prone countries, in order to avoid overestimation of losses with simulation model applications, it is proposed to use empirical relationships between number of casualties and earthquake magnitudes, obtained on the basis of more than 1,000 events characterised by anomalously high macroseismic effects.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aptikaev F, Frolova N (1998) Extreme estimations of seismic effect and social losses due to earthquakes. In: Proceedings of the XXIV ESC General Assembly, Tel Aviv, Israel, F3.06
Averʿyanova V, Baulin Yu, Koff G, Lutikov A, Mindel I, Nesmeyanov S, Se-vostʿyanov V (1996) Complex estimation of seismic hazard for the Grozny city territory, Moscow, pp 48ʿ51 (in Russian)
Bonnin J, Frolova N (2004) Near real-time loss assessment due to strong earthquakes: the state of the art. In: Proceedings of the XXIX General Assembly of European Seismological Commission (ESC2004), Potsdam, Germany
Bonnin J, Frolova N, Larionov V et al (2002) Reliability of possible earthquake impact assessment with alert seismological surveys application. In: Proceedings of the 28 General ESC Assembly, Genoa, Italy
Bonnin J, Frolova N, Kozlov M, Larionov V et al (2002) Experience of ʿExtremumʿ system application for operative earthquake loss assessment. In: Proceedings of the 28 General ESC Assembly, Genoa, Italy
Bystristkaya Yu (1978) Comparison of macroseismic and instrumental data (Da-gestan earthquake). Seism Hydrogasgeochem Dagestan Territory 2(17):78ʿ84
Chen Yong, Chen QF, Frolova N, Larionov V, Nikolaev A, Pejcoch J, Suchshev S, Ugarov A (2001) Decision support tool for disaster management in the case of strong earthquakes. In: Information and technology for disaster management. Asian Disaster Reduction Center, Collection of selected papers, Kobe, Japan, pp 94ʿ105
Cherkaoui T-E, Harnafi M (2004) Le Seisme dʿal Hoceima du 24 Fevrier 2004. Rapport preliminaire de mission du 3 au 7 Mars
De Groeve T (2006) Global disaster alert and coordination system ʿ earthquake alerts for international humanitarian response. In: Proceedings of IDRC2006, Davos, Switzerland
De Groeve T, Annunziato A, Gadenz S, Vernaccini L, Erberik A, Yilmaz T (2008) Real-time impact estimation of large earthquakes using USGS Shakemaps. In: Proceedings of IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland
Eshghi S, Zare M (2003) Bam (SE Iran) Earthquake of 26 December 2003, Mw6.5: A preliminary reconnaissance report, First Edition: prepared on December 29, 2003
Flinn EA, Engdahl ER (1965) A proposed basis for geographical and seismic regionalization. Rev Geophys 3:123ʿ149
Frolova N, Nikolaev A, Larionov V et al (2003). Analysis of real time earthquake information applied for possible loss assessment. In: Proceedings of the TIEMS2003 Conference, Sofia Antipolis, France
Frolova N, Kozlov M, Larionov V et al (2003) Extremum system for earthquake risk and loss assessment. In: Proceedings of SE-40EEE, Skopje-Ohrid, Macedonia
Frolova N, Larionov V, Bonnin J, Rogozhin E, Starovojt O, Chepkunas L (2006) Scenario earthquake consequences and seismic risk mapping: case study for the northern Caucasus. In: Proceedings of the First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, Switzerland, 3ʿ8 Sept 2006, Paper No. 1266
Frolova N, Larionov V, Bonnin J (2007) Simulation-based information systems for multi-hazard risk and near real time loss estimations due to strong earthquakes. In: Proceedings of the TIEMS2007 Conference, Trogir, Croatia
Jaiswal KS, Wald DJ, Earle PS, Porter KA, Hearne M (2009) Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. In: Proceedings of the second international workshop on disaster casualties, University of Cambridge, UK, 15ʿ16 June 2009 (Chapter 6 in this publication)
Kondorskaya N, Shebalin N (eds) (1977) New catalogue of strong earthquakes for the USSR territory. Nauka, Moscow
Larionov V, Frolova N (2003) Peculiarities of seismic vulnerability estimations. In: Natural hazards in Russia, vol 6: natural risks assessment and management. Publishing House ʿKrukʿ, Moscow, pp 120ʿ131, in Russian
Larionov V, Frolova N (2006) Estimation of earthquake consequences in ʿemergencyʿ mode at global scale. In: Proceedings of the All-Russian Conference ʿRISK-2006ʿ. Nauka, Moscow, pp 138ʿ141 (in Russian)
Larionov V, Sushchev S, Ugarov A, Frolova N (2003) Seismic risk assessment with GIS-technology application. In: Natural hazards in Russia, vol 6. Natural Risks Assessment and Management, Publishing House ʿKrukʿ, Moscow, pp 209ʿ231 (in Russian)
Mirzoev K, Dzhuraev R (1985) Basic dependency of seismic intensity attenuation for the Tajikistan territory. In: Earthquakes in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, 1983. Joint Council on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Regional Center for Earthquake Prediction in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, Donish, Dushanbe, pp 99ʿ128 (in Russian)
Shebalin NV (1968) Procedures of engineering seismological data application for seismic zoning. In: Seismic zoning of the USSR, Nauka, Moscow, pp 95ʿ121 (in Russian)
Shebalin N (2003) Macroseismic problems. Comput Seismol 34:55ʿ200
Shebalin N, Karnik V, Hadzievski D (1974) Catalogue of earthquakes of the Balkan region, vol 1. UNDP-UNESCOP Survey of the Seismicity of the Balkan Region, Skopje
Shebalin N, Gekhman A, Shestoperov G (1986) Development of improved version of seismic intensity scale (MMSK-86) on the bases of MSK-64 scale and scale of joint council on seismology and earthquake engineering ʿ 73. Report on scientific research study within the Federal Program 0.74.03, number of state registration 01814003271, Joint Council on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow (in Russian)
Shebalin N, Leydecker G, Mokrushina N, Tatevossian R (1998) Earthquake catalogue for Central and Southern Europe 342 BC ʿ 1990 AD. Final Report to Contract No ETNU-CT93-0087, Brussels
Wald DJ, Earle PS, Allen TI, Jaiswal K, Porter K, Hearne M (2008) Development of the U.S. Geological Surveyʿs PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). In: 14th World Conference Earthquake Engineering, Paper 10-0008, Beijing, China
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organisation of Greece (OASP) and the Institute of Engineering and Earthquake Resistant Construction in Thessaloniki (ITSAK) for kindly providing seismic vulnerability data for buildings in Greece as well as to EERI and USGS who are responsible for the PAGER project.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Frolova, N., Larionov, V., Bonnin, J. (2011). Earthquake Casualties Estimation in Emergency Mode. In: Spence, R., So, E., Scawthorn, C. (eds) Human Casualties in Earthquakes. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 29. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9455-1_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9455-1_8
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-9454-4
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-9455-1
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)