Abstract
In this chapter assumptions about future developments of international migration in 27 European countries over the period 2002–2052 are summarized. The assumptions were developed to serve as an input for the forecasts and simulations of population and labour force developments in Europe. On the basis of an overview of the theories of international migration, various ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors and recent migration trends in Europe presented before, three knowledge-based scenarios for the future are presented and subsequently quantified. The scenarios are formulated separately for the flows among the 27 countries under study and for the net migration with the other parts of the world.
An earlier, abridged version of this chapter (Bijak et al. 2008a) was published by Amsterdam University Press in the book International Migration in Europe: New Trends and New Methods of Analysis, edited by C. Bonifazi, M. Okólski, J. Schoorl and P. Simon. The authors are grateful to Amsterdam University Press for permission to include this material in the current volume.
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- 1.
The scenario came true only partly: Finland opened its labour market in 2006, the Netherlands and Luxembourg opened their labour markets in 2007, whereas Belgium and Denmark opened their labour markets only in 2009.
- 2.
These predictions did not come true. All of the countries in Southern Europe (Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal) opened up their labour markets for workers from the new EU member states in 2006. Only France continued with the transitional period until 2008.
- 3.
These predictions turned out to be true. Both Germany and Austria did not fully open their labour markets to workers from the new EU member states until 2011.
- 4.
Only Iceland opened up its labour market in 2006, Norway waited until 2009, whereas Lichtenstein maintained the restrictions up to 2011.
- 5.
The Treaty on Accession was finally signed on 25 April 2005 and Bulgaria and Romania became EU member states on 1 January 2007. The scenario for opening up the EU-25 labour markets for Bulgarian and Romanian workers was not fulfilled. Ten EU-25 member states (Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden) liberalized access of Bulgarian and Romanian workers to their labour markets under national law from 1 January 2007. Additional five EU member states opened up their labour markets in 2009—Spain, Greece, Hungary, Portugal and Denmark.
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Bijak, J., Kicinger, A., Kupiszewski, M. (2013). International Migration Scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052. In: Kupiszewski, M. (eds) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_5
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