Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Use of International Migration Theories in Migration Forecasting—A Practical Approach

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 32))

Abstract

This chapter provides an assessment of the usefulness of the theories of international migration from the point of view of migration forecasting. We argue that theories are not very useful for migration forecasters. Migration theories are fragmented, refer to various spatial scales, are difficult to operationalize and span a large number of quite distant disciplines. Nevertheless, we do not advocate here the preparation of completely atheoretical forecasts. Instead, we suggest that picking the most appropriate theories might be a solution for forecasters. We conclude that the push–pull theory is the most suitable theory for direct use in migration forecasts and we analyse the main push—pull factors which have been identified as responsible for international migration in Europe. We also argue that migration policies should be factored explicitly when setting international migration scenarios.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Alecke, B., Huber, P., & Untiedt, G. (2001). What difference a constant makes? How predictable are international migration? In Migration policies and EU enlargement. The case of Central and Eastern Europe (pp. 63–78). Paris: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alvarez-Plata, P., Brücker, H., & Siliverstovs, B. (2003). Potential migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU-15 – An update. Report for the European Commission, DG Employment and Social Affairs, DIW Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arango, J. (2000). Explaining migration: A critical view. International Social Science Journal, 52(165), 283–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bijak, J. (2010). Forecasting international migration in Europe: A Bayesian view (Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, Vol. 24). Dordrecht: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • BMI. (2004). http://www.bmi.bund.de

  • Boeri, T., Brücker, H., Iara, A., Huber, P., Kaczmarczyk, P., Upward, R., & Vidovic, H. (2009). Literature review. Deliverable 1. Labour mobility within the EU in the context of enlargement and the functioning of the transitional arrangements. European Integration Consortium.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bourdieu, P., & Wacquant, L. J. D. (1992). An invitation to reflexive sociology. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brettell, C. B., & Hollifield, J. F. (2000). Migration theory. Talking across disciplines. In C. B. Brettell & J. F. Hollifield (Eds.), Migration theory. Talking across disciplines (pp. 1–26). New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brücker, H. (2000). The impact of Eastern enlargement on employment and labour markets in the EU member states – Final report, part I: Analysis. Brussels: European Commission.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brücker, H., & Siliverstovs, B. (2005). On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: How relevant is heterogeneity across countries (IZA Discussion Paper 170).

    Google Scholar 

  • Brücker, H., Trübswetter, P., & Weise, C. (2000). EU-Osterweiterung: Keine massive Zuwande-rung zu erwarten (DIW Wochenbericht 21/00). Berlin. http://www.diw.de/diwwbd/00-21-1.html

  • Council of Europe. (1997–2003). Recent demographic developments in Europe. Strasbourg: Council of Europe.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Jong, A., & Visser, H. (1997). Long term international migration scenarios for the European Economic Area (Eurostat Working Paper E4/1977-6). Luxembourg: Eurostat.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, B. (2000). German and Jewish migration from the former Soviet Union to Germany: Background, trends and implications. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 26(4), 635–652.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eberhardt, P. (1999). Ethnic minorities in Central-Eastern Europe. Geographia Polonica, 72(1), 125–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fertig, M., & Schmidt, C. M. (2000). Aggregate-level migration studies as a tool for forecasting future migration streams (IZA Discussion paper 183). Bonn: Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit.

    Google Scholar 

  • Franzmeyer, F., & Brücker, H. (1997). Europäische Union: Osterweiterung und Arbeitskräfte-migration (DIW Wochenbericht 5/97, pp. 89–96). Berlin. http://www.diw.de/diwwbd/97-05-1.html

  • Górny, A., & Kaczmarczyk, P. (2003). Uwarunkowania i mechanizmy migracji zarobkowych w świetle wybranych koncepcji teoretycznych. Prace Migracyjne 49, ISS UW, Warsaw.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenwood, M. J. (1992). The macro determinants of international migration: A survey. Conference “Mass Migration in Europe: Implications in East and West”, IAS-IIASA-IF, Vienna.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, unemployment, and development: A twosector analysis. American Economic Review, 60, 126–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hicks, J. (1932). The theory of wages. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hollifield, J. F. (2000). The politics of international migration: How can we “bring the state back in”. In C. B. Brettel & J. F. Hollifield (Eds.), Migration theory. Talking cross disciplines (pp. 137–186). New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • ICMPD. (2001). Current Roma migration from the EU Candidate States. Research report, Vienna.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglicka, K. (1995). Migracje zagraniczne w świetle najnowszych ujęć teoretycznych [International migration in the light of the recent theoretical approaches]. Studia Demograficzne, 121(3), 19–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglicka, K., Jaźwińska, E., & Okólski, M. (1995). Współczesne migracje zagraniczne ludności Polski. Badania za pomocą podejścia etnosondażowego [Contemporary international migration of the population of Poland. An ethno-survey research]. Studia Demograficzne, 126(4), 3–41.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglicka, K., Jaźwińska, E., Kępińska, E., & Koryś, P. (1997). Imigranci w Polsce w świetle badania sondażowego [Immigrants in Poland in the light of an ethno-survey research] (ISS Working Papers “Prace Migracyjne” 10). Warsaw: Institute of Social Studies, Warsaw University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglicka-Okólska, K. (1998). Analiza zachowań migracyjnych na podstawie wyników badania etnosondażowego migracji zagranicznych w wybranych regionach Polski w latach 1975–1994 [Analysis of the migratory behaviour on the basis of an ethnosurvey research in the selected regions of Poland in the period 1975–1994]. Warsaw School of Economics

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaźwińska, E., Okólski, M. (Eds.) (2001). Ludzie na huśtawce. Migracje między peryferiami Polski i Zachodu [People on the swing. Migration between the peripheries of Poland and the West]. Warsaw: Scholar.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jennissen, R. (2004). Macro-economic determinants of international migration in Europe (Population Studies). Amsterdam: Dutch University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaczmarczyk, P. (2004, October 22). Związki pomiędzy poziomem bezrobocia a zatrudnieniem obcokrajowców [Relationships between the level of unemployment and employment of foreigners]. Paper presented on a conference “Wolność przepływu osób w rozszerzonej UE. Przypadki Polski i Niemiec” [Freedom of movement of persons in enlarged European Union. The case of Poland and Germany], Warsaw.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keely, C. B. (2000). Demography and international migration. In C. B. Brettell & J. F. Hollifield (Eds.), Migration theory. Talking across disciplines (pp. 43–60). New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korcelli, P. (2000). Migration from Poland and the future EU enlargement. In Z. Chojnicki & J. Parysek (Eds.), Polish geography. Problems, research, applications (pp. 5–18). Poznań: Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe S.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koryś, P., & Okólski, M. (2004). Czas globalnych migracji. Mobilność międzynarodowa w perspektywie globalizacji [Time of global migration. International mobility in the perspective of globalisation] (ISS Working Papers “Prace Migracyjne” 55). Institute of Social Studies, University of Warsaw.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kritz, M., Lim, L. L., & Zlotnik, H. (Eds.). (1992). International migration systems: A global approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewski, M. (1996). Forecasting international migration in European countries in transition (Working Paper 96/3). Leeds: School of Geography, University of Leeds.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewski, M. (2001b). Demograficzne aspekty wybranych prognoz migracji zagranicznych [Demographic aspects of selected international migration forecasts]. In A. Stępniak (Ed.), Swobodny przepływ pracowników w kontekście wejścia polski do Unii Europejskiej, “Zrozumieć negocjacje” (pp. 73–98). Warsaw: UKIE.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewski, M. (2002a). Modelowanie dynamiki przemian ludności w warunkach wzrostu znaczenia migracji międzynarodowych [The role of international migration in the modeling of population dynamics]. Warsaw: Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kupiszewski, M. (2002b). How trustworthy are forecasts of international migration between Poland and the European Union? Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 28(4), 627–645.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laczko, F. (Ed.). (2000). Migrant trafficking and human smuggling in Europe. Geneva: International Organisation for Migration.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, E. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 45–57.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, A. W. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22, 139–191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Locher, L. (2002). Migration in the Soviet Successor States (IZA Discussion Paper 602). Bonn.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S. (1987). The ethnosurvey in theory and practice. International Migration Review, 21, 1498–1522.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S. (1990). Social structure, household strategies, and the cumulative causation of migration. Population Index, 56, 3–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. (1998). World in motion. Understanding international migration at the end of Millenium. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S. (2001). Theory of migration. In International encyclopaedia of the social and behavioural sciences (pp. 9828–9834). Oxford: Elsevier.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. (2002). A synthetic theory of international migration. In V. Iontsev (Ed.), World in the mirror of international migration (International Migration of Population: Russia and the Contemporary World, Vol. 10, pp. 142–170). Moscow: Max Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S. (2003, June 4–7). Patterns and processes of international migration in the 21st century. Paper prepared for conference on African Migration in Comparative Perspective, Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Koucouci, A., Pelligrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1994). An evaluation of international migration theory: The North American case. Population and Development Review, 20, 699–752.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyers, E. (2000). Theories of international immigration policy – A comparative analysis. International Migration Review, 34(4), 1245–1282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Öberg, S. (1996). Spatial and economic factors in future South–north migration. In W. Lutz (Ed.), The future population of the world: What can we assume today? (pp. 336–357). London: Earthscan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Öberg, S., & Wils, A. B. (1992). East–west migration in Europe. Can migration theories help estimate the numbers. POPNET, 22, 1–7.

    Google Scholar 

  • Okólski, M. (1998). Assessing the principal determinants of migration. In T. Frejka et al. (Eds.), In-depth studies on migration in Central and Eastern Europe (pp. 87–104). New York/Geneva: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • Okólski, M. (2000b). Incomplete migration. A new form of mobility in Central and Eastern Europe. The case of Polish and Ukrainian migrants. In C. Wallace & D. Stola (Eds.), Central Europe: New migration space (p. 95). Houndmills: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Orłowski, W. (2000). Migration from Central and Eastern European countries after the accession: Effects for regions, labour markets, and social security systems, Research Bulletin, 2(9), GUS, Warsaw: 7–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Orłowski, W. M., & Zienkowski, L. (1998). Skala potencjalnych emigracji z Polski po przystąpieniu do Unii Europejskiej: próba prognozy [Magnitude of potential emigration form Poland after the EU accession: A forecast attempt]. In P. Korcelli (Ed.), Przemiany w zakresie migracji ludności jako konsekwencja przystąpienia Polski do Unii Europejskiej, Biuletyn KPZK PAN, 184: 55–66.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piore, M. J. (1979). Birds of passage: Migrant labour in industrial societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Portes, A. (1997). Immigration theory for a new century: Some problems and opportunities. International Migration Review, 31, 799–825.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Portes, A., & Bach, R. L. (1985). Latin journey: Cuban and Mexican immigrants in the United States. Berkley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society, 48, 167–227.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ravenstein, E. G. (1889). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society, 52, 214–301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salt, J. (2000, November 10–11). Europe’s migration field. Workshop on Demographic and Cultural Specificity and Integration of Migrants, Bingen, Germany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salt, J. (2004). Introduction to the session II on New forms of international migration presented to the conference on International Migration in Europe: New Trends, New Methods of Analysis. Rome.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salt, J., & Singleton, A. (1995). Analysis and forecasting of international migration by major groups. Draft report to the Working Party on Demographic Projections, Eurostat.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmitter Heisler, B. (2000). The sociology of immigration from assimilation to segmented integration, from American experience to the global arena. In C. B. Brettell & J. F. Hollifield (Eds.), Migration theory. Talking across disciplines (pp. 77–96). New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinn, H.-W., et al. (2000). EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration: Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte. Munich: Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sjaastad, L. A. (1962). The costs and returns of human migration. Journal of Political Economy, 70, 80–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stark, O. (1991). The migration of labour. Cambridge: Blackwell.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, O. (2003). Tales of migration without wage differentials: Individual, family, and community contexts. Institutions and Economic Development, 1, 2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The new economics of labor migration. American Economic Review, 75, 173–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, O., & Taylor, E. (1989). Relative deprivation and international migration. Demography, 26, 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stouffer, S. A. (1940). Intervening opportunities: A theory relating mobility and distance. American Sociological Review, 5, 845–867.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stouffer, S. A. (1960). Intervening opportunities and competing migrants. Journal of Regional Studies, 2(1), 187–208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Straubhaar, T. (2001). Migration policies and EU enlargement. Intereconomics, 36(4), 167–170.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, E. J. (1986). Differential migration, networks, information and risk. In O. Stark (Ed.), Research in human capital and development. Vol. 4: Migration, human capital, and development (pp. 147–171). Greenwich: AI Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Termote, M. (1967). Les modèles de migration. Une perspective d’ensemble. Recherche Economique de Louvain, 33(4), 413–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Todaro, M. P. (1976). International migration in developing countries. Geneva: ILO.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNHCR. (2004). Statistical yearbook 2002, trends in displacement, protection and solutions. Geneva: UNHCR.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations. (2003a). World population prospects: 2002 revision. New York/Geneva: United Nations.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations. (2003b). UN ECE economic survey of Europe, No. 2. New York: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

    Google Scholar 

  • URIC. (2004). POLAND. Quantitative data of procedures concerning foreigners in the years 2001–2003. Warsaw: URIC [Office for Repatriation and Aliens].

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank. (2003). 2003 world development indicators CD-ROM. World Bank.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zienkowski, L. (2001). Ekonomiczne aspekty swobodnego przepływu pracowników w rozszerzonej Unii Europejskiej [Economic aspects of the free flow of workers in the enlarged European Union]. In Andrzej Stępniak (Ed.), Swobodny przepływ pracowników w ontekście wejścia polski do Unii Europejskiej, „Zrozumieć negocjacje” (pp. 99–126). Warsaw: UKIE.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zlotnik, H. (1992). Empirical identification of international migration systems. In M. Kritz, L. L. Lim, & H. Zlotnik (Eds.), International migration systems: A global approach (pp. 19–40). Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zlotnik, H. (1998, June 25–27). The theories of international migration. Conference on international migration: Challenges for European populations, Bari.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zolberg, A. R. (1981). International migrations in political perspective. In M. Kritz, C. B. Keely, & S. M. Tomasi (Eds.), Global trends in migration: Theory and research on international population movements (pp. 3–27). New York: Center for Migration Studies, Staten Island.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zolberg, A. (1989). The next waves: Migration theory for a changing word. International Migration Review, 23(3), 403–430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Marek Kupiszewski

  2. Division of Social Statistics and Demography, ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC), Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Jakub Bijak

  3. Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, IOM, Warsaw, Poland

    Anna Kicinger

Authors
  1. Marek Kupiszewski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jakub Bijak
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Anna Kicinger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marek Kupiszewski .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Population Research, Central European Forum for Migration &, ul. Twarda 51/55, Warszawa, 00-818, Poland

    Marek Kupiszewski

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Kupiszewski, M., Bijak, J., Kicinger, A. (2013). The Use of International Migration Theories in Migration Forecasting—A Practical Approach. In: Kupiszewski, M. (eds) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_3

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation