Abstract
The chapter describes in detail the multistate population model for multilevel systems (MULTIPOLES) used in the study. The model belongs to the family of multiregional cohort-component models and follows the concept of hierarchical models of population proposed by Rees in 1996. The model allows the inclusion of assumptions about the components of population change as well as about future economic activity rates and thus allows simultaneous forecasts, simulations and projections of the population and labour force. It was designed to handle multinational populations simultaneously, parting from the traditional approach of country-by-country population projections. International migration flows provide links between the elements of such a system, similarly as internal migration flows do in traditional multiregional models.
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- 1.
It is worth noting that after a recent extension, migration flows to/from the rest of the world can be modelled in MULTIPOLES either in terms of net migration flows, or in terms of emigration rates combined with immigration numbers (Kupiszewska and Kupiszewski 2010). Here we discuss the version used in the simulations presented, i.e. the version with the net migration flows from the rest of the world.
- 2.
When estimating the benchmark occurrence-exposure rates, the population at risk may be represented by the mid-year population or by the average of the population at the beginning and the end of the projection step.
- 3.
We calculate these rates for 5-year periods, so they denote the average number of deaths or emigration events per person during the 5-year period (t, t + 5). The rates refer to period–cohort age groups.
- 4.
In the multiregional applications of MULTIPOLES, activity rates may be specified on the regional level and labour force calculations are performed for regions and countries.
- 5.
The aim of the current study was to investigate the impact of migration and we decided to keep the fertility scenario simple. In the latest version of MULTIPOLES it is possible to set scenarios for fertility rates by the mother’s age group explicitly, which allows one to model, for example, the impact of the changes of the average age of childbearing.
- 6.
It is worth noting that the relative numbers of migrants in each age group are not percentages and they may be positive or negative, depending on whether the net migration in a given age group is positive or negative. These numbers must add up to 100 if the overall net migration to a given country is positive, or to −100 in the opposite case.
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Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M. (2013). Population and Labour Force Dynamics Model. In: Kupiszewski, M. (eds) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_11
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