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Relationships Between UK Sub-national Trends in Infant Mortality and Fertility

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Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Part of the book series: Understanding Population Trends and Processes ((UPTA,volume 4))

Abstract

This chapter aims to add to our understanding of the relationship between different demographic components since trajectories over time combine to affect changes in population size. Clarifying whether changes in infant mortality rates relate geographically with changes in fertility rates will inform both the early life mortality and fertility rate assumptions of projection models and the survival of live births through the first year of life. The chapter reviews the findings of a previous study on timing and patterns of sub-national variations in infant mortality trends (as child mortality) in relation to fertility trends in England and Wales during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Then, more recent trends are investigated for 1981–2006 with the study area extended to cover the whole of the United Kingdom. Regression models are developed to determine socio-demographic influences on infant mortality and fertility rates. Finally, a classification is developed to highlight whether groups of areas have similar trends in infant mortality and fertility rates.

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Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Phil Rees for his unerring support and patient advice over the years. The research reported here is supported by ESRC Research Award RES-163-25-0032, ‘What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for local areas’ and ESRC Research Award RES-189-25-0162. The Census data used were obtained via MIMAS’ CASWEB and GIS boundary data via EDINA’s UKBORDERS, facilities supported by ESRC and JISC. The Census, official Mid-Year Estimates and Vital Statistics for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have been provided by ONS, GROS and NISRA and the digital boundary data by OSGB and OSNI. These data are Crown copyright and are reproduced with permission of the Office of Public Sector Information.

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  1. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Paul Norman

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  1. Paul Norman
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  1. School of Geography, Fac. Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    John Stillwell

  2. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

    Martin Clarke

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Norman, P. (2011). Relationships Between UK Sub-national Trends in Infant Mortality and Fertility. In: Stillwell, J., Clarke, M. (eds) Population Dynamics and Projection Methods. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8930-4_5

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