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Longitudinal Analysis

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The Measurement and Analysis of Housing Preference and Choice

Abstract

This chapter addresses the discrepancy between stated intentions to move and actual mobility behavior. In previous research, two methodologies can be distinguished concerning the linkage between stated intentions and actual behavior: the cross-sectional approach and the longitudinal approach. In this chapter it is argued that a longitudinal research method in which the same group of respondents is followed in time is to be preferred when one wants to gain insight into the relationship between stated intentions to move and actual moving behavior. Using a unique longitudinal data-set in which survey data from the Housing Demand Survey 2002 are enriched with longitudinal register data from the Social Statistical Database (SSD) it is shown how characteristics and circumstances at one point in time hamper or stimulate actual mobility behavior at a later point in time. The longitudinal analysis shows that the extent to which people behave in accordance to their stated intentions to move is mainly affected by the urgency of the intention to move. The underlying triggers for moving and tenure preferences also play a role; particularly those who want to move out of homeownership have a high probability of realizing their intention to move. Furthermore, restrictions that stem from the household and housing career as well as a lack of housing opportunities in the search location may hamper the execution of stated intentions to move. Surprisingly, the realization of stated intentions to move is hardly affected by socio-economic characteristics such as income.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The total effect is the summation of the main effects and the interaction effect. For example, the total effect for homeowners (1) with a preference to move to a rental home (0): 0.357*(1)  +  0.176*(0) – 0.365*(1*0)  =  0.357; the corresponding predicted odds ratio is 1.429 (e0.357).

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Acknowledgments

I am very grateful to my two supervisors, Clara Mulder and Dorien Manting, for their highly valuable comments on earlier drafts of this chapter. Furthermore, I would like to thank Frank van Oort for his help with the macro-zoning of regions in the Netherlands, and Statistics Netherlands who allowed us to use data from the Social Statistical Database (SSD). The use of the SSD was possible due to the joint cooperation of Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Carola de Groot

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  1. Carola de Groot
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Correspondence to Carola de Groot .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. OTB Research Institute for Housing,, Urban & Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 9, Delft, 2628 BX, Netherlands

    Sylvia J.T. Jansen

  2. OTB Research Institute for Housing,, Urban & Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 9, Delft, 2628 BX, Netherlands

    Henny C.C.H. Coolen

  3. ABF Research B.V., Verwersdijk 8, Delft, 2611 NH, Netherlands

    Roland W. Goetgeluk

Appendix 1 Descriptive statistics of dependent and independent variables in the multivariate analysis for filterers (N  =  11730)

Appendix 1 Descriptive statistics of dependent and independent variables in the multivariate analysis for filterers (N  =  11730)

 

Frequency (%)

Of whom moved (%)

Moving behavior (dependent variable)

  

Did not move within 2 year period

8,019 (68.4)

 

Moved within 2 year period

3,711 (31.6)

 

Characteristics of intention to move and housing preferences

  

Urgency of intention to move

  

Less urgent intention

9,281 (79.1)

25.7

Urgent intention

2,449 (20.9)

54.3

Reason for moving

  

Demographic event

1,713 (14.6)

33.7

Housing

6,129 (52.3)

31.2

Work or education

859 (7.3)

33.1

Other reason

3,029 (25.8)

31.0

Preferred tenure

  

Wish to rent

5,165 (44.0)

30.3

Wish to own

6,565 (56.0)

32.7

Preferred type of housing

  

Wish for apartment

3,231 (27.5)

30.8

Wish for single family home

8,499 (72.5)

32.0

Preferred search location

  

Randstad

5,485 (46.8)

30.8

Intermediate zone

3,393 (28.9)

31.7

National periphery

2,852 (24.3)

33.1

Resources and restrictions

  

Income

  

Lowest quartile

2,646 (22.6)

30.0

Second quartile

3,272 (27.9)

29.8

Third quartile

2,914 (24.8)

32.7

Highest quartile

2,898 (24.7)

34.1

Level of education

  

Up to lower secondary

4,414 (37.6)

28.2

Higher secondary or medium vocational

3,741 (31.9)

33.0

Higher vocational or university

3,575 (30.5)

34.5

Employment status

  

Employed

7,897 (67.3)

33.3

Not employed

3,833 (32.7)

28.3

Expected household composition

  

Single

2,975 (25.4)

29.2

Couple without children

4,207 (35.9)

35.7

Family with children

4,548 (38.8)

29.5

Current tenure

  

Renter

6,972 (59.4)

32.4

Owner

4,758 (40.6)

30.5

Other individual and housing characteristics

  

Age

  

<25

980 (8.4)

43.7

25–34

3,959 (33.8)

38.5

35–44

2,843 (24.2)

27.4

45–54

1,728 (14.7)

23.6

55–64

1,133 (9.7)

21.8

≥65

1,087 (9.3)

30.0

Ethnicity

  

Native-born

9,210 (78.5)

32.2

Non-western immigrant

1,470 (12.5)

28.8

Western immigrant

1,050 (9.0)

30.2

Perceived health

  

Healthy

9,607 (81.9)

32.8

Reasonably healthy

1,135 (9.7)

25.2

Less healthy

988 (8.4)

27.3

Type of home

  

Apartment

5,341 (45.5)

35.6

Single family home

6,389 (54.5)

28.3

Crowding

  

Crowded

2,425 (20.7)

34.4

Not crowded

3,286 (28.0)

32.8

Spacious

6,019 (51.3)

29.9

Satisfaction with home

  

Satisfied

8,224 (70.1)

30.6

Not satisfied or dissatisfied

1,924 (16.4)

31.4

Dissatisfied

1,582 (13.5)

37.4

Satisfaction with neighborhood

  

Satisfied

7,706 (65.7)

31.9

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied

1,715 (14.6)

29.6

Dissatisfied

2,309 (19.7)

32.4

  1. Source: SSD Satellite Spatial and Social Mobility 1999–2005, including HDS 2002

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de Groot, C. (2011). Longitudinal Analysis. In: Jansen, S., Coolen, H., Goetgeluk, R. (eds) The Measurement and Analysis of Housing Preference and Choice. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8894-9_10

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