Using Dendrochronology to Validate Numerical Simulations of Snow Avalanches in the Patagonian Andes

Abstract

Snow avalanches pose a considerable risk in the Patagonian Andes. Despite this, avalanche hazard maps are rare for this region. One way to reduce this risk uncertainty is to apply numerical models that predict avalanche runout. These models require that the avalanche release areas must be precisely determined (Maggioni and Gruber 2003) and the friction parameters used by the models must be adjusted to local terrain and snow conditions (Furdada et al. 2002). These parameters can be estimated by simulating avalanche events for which the extent of runout is known. Dendrochronological methods become a valuable tool for precisely defining the spatial extent of past events in the Andes where directly observed evidence is not available. Tree-ring studies are also important for reconstructing years of avalanche occurrences in such cases (Casteller et al. 2008).