Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options of European Agriculture

Abstract

Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, certain extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man’ activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory; precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results is useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variability much better. This paper is based on the findings of the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org), which was focused on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach was used beside the top-down one of using scientific studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilities and adaptation options. Results show, for example, that production risks, such as increasing drought and heat, are reported for most European regions. However, the vulnerabilities in the different regions are very much influenced by characteristics of the dominating agroecosystems and prevailing socio-economic conditions.