Abstract
The economic growth of emerging nations will inevitably require an increasing supply of primary mineral raw materials and metals. Fears about the availability of mineral raw materials have been raised during resource booms in the past and also during the last decade. This chapter refers to a recently developed method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks and applies it to the case of zinc. By analysing boom-and-bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying problematic market situations for zinc supply. This method, which is based on a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach and a numerical evaluation model, makes it possible to identify supply shortage risks at an early stage. On the basis of this market assessment, companies are in a better position to make informed decisions and can use suitable risk mitigation instruments to counteract problematic developments.
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Acknowledgements
The results of this study are based on a joint research project by the research department of Volkswagen AG and Germany’s Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR). This project, entitled “Criteria and Indicators for Risk Evaluation in the Supply of Mineral Raw Materials,” was carried out between September 2005 and May 2006. It was followed by the research project “Risk Assessment for Metals” and carried out between 2008 and 2010, which also included the analysis for zinc.
The BGR is the central geoscientific authority providing geo-related advice to the German Federal Government and the economy. This also applies to the activities of the BGR in the field of mineral economics. We would like to thank D. Homberg-Heumann and E. Westphale for the comprehensive preparation of data, tables and graphs. Our thanks also go to Dr. D. Huy and Dr. J. Vasters for critical discussions and revisions.
The research department of Volkswagen AG examines issues such as sustainable material procurement and development. Its findings are used in the evaluation of raw material markets, future technological trends and in corporate planning. We would like to thank Dr. M. Wagner, Dr. U. Elsner, Dr. D. Rosenau-Tornow, A. Riemann and S. Konietzko for their valuable contributions and ideas during the research project.
Finally, we would like to thank the reviewers at Springer for their valuable contributions and advice on improving the manuscript.
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Buchholz, P., Liedtke, M., Gernuks, M. (2012). Evaluating Supply Risk Patterns and Supply and Demand Trends for Mineral Raw Materials: Assessment of the Zinc Market. In: Sinding-Larsen, R., Wellmer, FW. (eds) Non-Renewable Resource Issues. International Year of Planet Earth. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8679-2_8
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