A Simulation Model and a Vulnerability Assessment of the Worldwide Energy Supply
Meeting the worldwide energy demand is considered a critical task. However, the size and the complexity of the energy supply chain allows for potential threats to develop. On several occasions during the last few years there have been interruptions to the energy supply chain, recent examples being the hijacking of the oil tanker Sirius Star in November 2008 and the disruption of pipeline gas supply to Europe due to a price dispute. Causes for interruptions in the energy supply chain can also be natural disasters or accidental damage (i.e. earthquakes, ship collisions, pipeline fractures, etc.). The objective of this paper is to evaluate and identify the vulnerable components of the global energy network, to calculate the flow capacity loss in the case of a predetermined failure, and to optimize the supply chain layout so that potential loss is minimized. To accomplish this, a global network model of oil and gas maritime and pipeline links is developed. Utilizing a shortest path algorithm, a realistic spatial structure of transport links is achieved along with feasible alternative maritime routes. After modelling the worldwide energy network, failure scenarios involving the critical nodes and links are identified. The scenarios examine partial or complete failure of a selection of critical links and/or nodes, and by determining the flow through residual network, an optimized layout of the worldwide energy supply chain is determined and its robustness is evaluated.
KeywordsVulnerability supply chain model shortest-path finding minimum cost flow
- 1.Begg, D., Fischer, S., Dornbush, R., 2005. Economics, 8th edition, Maidenhead, Berkshire, United Kingdom: McGraw-Hell EducationGoogle Scholar
- 3.Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 2008. The 2008 World Factbook. Virginia, Central Intelligence Agency.Google Scholar
- 4.Davis, S., Diegel, S., 2006. Transportation Energy Data Book. 25th ed. Oak Ridge National Laboratory: National Transportation Research Centre.Google Scholar
- 9.Energy Information Administration, June 2006. International Agency Outlook 2006, Washington: U.S. Department of Energy.Google Scholar
- 13.Hillier, F., Lieberman, G., 2005. Introduction to Operations Research. McGraw-Hill, New York.Google Scholar
- 14.Institution of Shipping Economics and Logistics, 2005. ISL Market Analysis 2005, Tanker fleet development. Bremen: Institution of Shipping and Logistics.Google Scholar
- 15.Institution of Shipping Economics and Logistics, 2005. ISL Market Analysis 2005, World merchand fleet, OECD shipping and shipbuilding. Bremen: Institution of Shipping and Logistics.Google Scholar
- 18.International Energy Agency, 2006. Key Energy Statistics 2006, France: International Energy Agency.Google Scholar
- 19.. Interstate Oil and Gas Transportation to Europe (INOGATE), 2008. Inogate map of natural gas pipelines [Online]. Available at http://www.inogate.org/en/resources/map_gas.
- 20.Oil and Gas Journal, 2004. Oil and Gas Journal Data Book, Tulsa, United States of America: Penn Well BooksGoogle Scholar
- 21.United Nations, 2004. World Energy Assessment, overview 2004 update, New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
- 22.United Nations, 2006. Review of Maritime Transport 2006, New York and Geneva: UNCTAD Secretariat.Google Scholar
- 23.United Nations, 2000. World Energy Assessment, energy and the challenge of sustainability, New York: UNCTAD Secretariat.Google Scholar