Abstract
The demographic assumption of late settlement theorists is of a population rapidly increasing over 200 years from AD 1200 to AD 1400, during the warm global climate period (the Medieval Climatic Optimum) and then, in contradiction to global patterns, continuing to increase at the same rate during the Little Ice Age. A continuous population increase might be arguable if there were no evidence of food scarcity and of associated conflict over land and resources after 1400 due to the global cold conditions of the Little Ice Age. The 7,000 pa (hill-forts) built during this period and the extreme population decline rates derived from an analysis of skeletal data in Chapter 14 both contradict this assumption. The conclusion that follows is that population levels in New Zealand were high enough at the beginning of the Little Ice Age for ceilings of sustainability to be breached when adverse climatic conditions reduced the biota. Given the large landmass of New Zealand, population levels would have to have been very considerable for this to have happened. High populations by AD 1400 imply significant time depth for settlement in New Zealand, given that till AD 1200 New Zealand would have had a population growth rate consistent with a settled hunter/gatherer population, rather than one appropriate for a horticulturally based society.
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Pearce, C.E., Pearce, F. (2010). The Context of Global Climate Change: Climate-Driven Demography. In: Oceanic Migration. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3826-5_12
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