Abstract
Weather and climate forecasts are potentially valuable sources of information for use in risk management tools. It is important however to be aware of their limitations (several approximations go into a forecasting model) as well as of opportunities to enhance their information content (e.g. through understanding the underlying physical processes which lead to a given forecast). This chapter explores, at a rather high level, the physical basis of forecasts, the tools used for producing them and the importance of assessing their skill. An interesting case of a seasonal forecast and its impact on the energy market is also discussed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anderson DLT (2008) Overview of seasonal forecasting, in: Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT and Mason SJ, eds, NATO Science Series, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 45–66.
Buontempo C, Brookshaw A, Arribas A and Mylne K (2009) Chapter 3, This volume.
Dutton JA (2009) Chapter 1, This volume.
Folland CK, Parker DE, Scaife AA, Kennedy J, Colman A, Brookshaw A, Cusack S and Huddleston MR (2006) The 2005/06 winter in Europe and the United Kingdom: Part 2: Prediction techniques and their assessment against observations. Weather, 61, 337–346.
Graham RJ, Gordon C, Huddleston MR, Davey M, Norton W, Colman A, Scaife AA, Brookshaw A, Ingleby B, McLean P, Cusack S, McCallum E, Elliott W, Groves K, Cotgrove D and Robinson D (2006) The 2005/06 winter in Europe and the United Kingdom: Part 1: How the Met Office forecast was produced and communicated. Weather, 61, 327–336.
Harrison M, Troccoli A, Williams JB and Coughlan M (2008) Seasonal forecasts in decision making, in: Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT and Mason SJ, eds, NATO Science Series, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 13–42.
Mason SJ and Stephenson DB (2008) How do we know whether seasonal climate forecasts are any good?, in: Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT and Mason SJ, eds, NATO Science Series, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 259–290.
Oil & Gas UK (2007) The Future of UK Gas: A Phase Diagram. A report by Pöyry Energy Consulting, available at: http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/issues/gas/poyryreport07.pdf
Rodwell M and Doblas-Reyes FJ (2006) Predictability and prediction of European monthly to seasonal climate anomalies. J. Climate, 19, 6025–6046.
Tribbia J and Troccoli A (2008) Getting the coupled model ready at the starting blocks, in: Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT and Mason SJ, eds, NATO Science Series, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 91–126.
Troccoli A and Huddleston M (2006) Forecasting UK and European winters. Weather, 61, 356–357.
Troccoli A, Anderson DLT, Mogensen K, Van der Grijn G, Ferry N and Garric G (2008) Coupled ocean-atmosphere medium range forecasts: the MERSEA experience. ECMWF Newsletter, 115, 27–35. Available at: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Troccoli, A. (2010). Weather and Climate Predictions for the Energy Sector. In: Troccoli, A. (eds) Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3692-6_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3692-6_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-3691-9
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-3692-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)