Impact of Climatic Uncertainty on Water Sequestration of a Subtropical River Basin

Abstract

The water sequestration capacity (WSC) of a region could be defined as the amount of water possible to be stored within the vegetative zones of the region, which could only be used by the vegetations of that region. The storage capacity of vegetated areas of a basin could also be called as WSC of that basin. The sequestration value could estimate or give an idea of the amount of vegetation/crop possible from the basin. In the present study, water sequestration is predicted with the help of neurogenetic models in face of climatic uncertainty. Water sequestration is important as it directly impacts the agricultural activity of a catchment. The study can tell us about the impacts of climate change on ­agricultural activity as water sequestrated by a catchment can decide the agricultural yield of the same. River Damodar was selected as the study area for the present study. The Damodar catchment is widely known for its high-scale soil erosion and variable water retention capacity. The PARITYCGD, a neurogenetic model trained with orthopareto dataset, was applied to estimate future stream flow and from the estimated stream flow, WSC of a basin was calculated. The estimated WSC of the basin showed the impact of climatic uncertainties on the basin’s overall agricultural output. According to the results, WSC of upstream and downstream of river Barakar, river Damodar, and entire river network of Rupnarayan would be less than that of upstream of river Damodar in the future from 2010 to 2100 due to both A2 and B2 scenario of climate change. The magnitude of WSC was found to be greater in case of A2 scenario than B2 scenario of climate change. Although, WSC is a relatively new concept, it needs lot of revisions and rejudgments for considering as a more scientific and reliable parameter for agricultural output of a basin.