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Forecast Uncertainties in the Operational Flood Forecasting of the Bavarian Danube Catchment

  • Stefan Laurent
  • Christine Hangen-Brodersen
  • Uwe Ehret
  • Inke Meyer
  • Katja Moritz
  • Alfons Vogelbacher
  • Franz-Klemens Holle
Chapter

Abstract

Hydrological forecasts have become an important part of the flood information service, since they are calculated for all river catchments in the Bavarian Danube Catchment. Experiences with published forecasts during former flood events have shown the need for communicating the uncertainties associated with these forecasts to the civil protection authorities and the public. Therefore, methods for quantifying and representing these uncertainties have been developed and incorporated in the flood warning routine. A newly developed approach varies the dominant factors of uncertainty like the meteorological forecast in headwaters by including forecast ensembles. The remaining factors are represented by a static uncertainty measure derived from offline analysis and combined with the former. The total uncertainty is represented by the 10 and 90% exceedance probabilities published together with a single deterministic forecast via the internet.

Keywords

Flood forecast Uncertainty Flood information system Ensemble Bavarian Danube Catchment 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefan Laurent
    • 1
  • Christine Hangen-Brodersen
    • 2
  • Uwe Ehret
    • 3
  • Inke Meyer
    • 4
  • Katja Moritz
    • 4
  • Alfons Vogelbacher
    • 4
  • Franz-Klemens Holle
    • 4
  1. 1.State Office for Water ManagementKemptenGermany
  2. 2.Flood Forecast River Main, Bavarian Environment AgencyHofGermany
  3. 3.Department of Hydrology and River Basin ManagementTechnical University MunichMunichGermany
  4. 4.Flood Information Centre, Bavarian Environment AgencyMunichGermany

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