Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Droughts

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Hydrometeorology

Abstract

Droughts usually arise from a shortfall in precipitation, and can be exacerbated by increases in demand for water supply, agriculture and other applications. The onset of a drought is often recognised through the impacts on key water users, and may include meteorological, hydrological, groundwater, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts. Some difficulties in forecasting the onset and progression of droughts include factors such as their slowly developing nature, the large spatial extent, and the spatial and temporal variations in impacts which often occur. This has led to the development of a wide range of possible indices and indicators, of which several may be used operationally to identify different stages in the progression of a drought. For short-term forecasts, forecasting techniques range from simple regression techniques through to integrated catchment models driven by rainfall observations and forecasts. At longer time scales, ensemble forecasting techniques are widely used, together with statistical techniques relating conditions to oceanic and atmospheric phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These methods may also be combined with forecasting techniques for individual applications, such as supply-demand models for water resources operations, and crop simulation models for irrigation scheduling. This chapter presents an introduction to these topics, and includes several examples of operational drought warning systems.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Barnett TP, Preisendorfer R (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 115: 1825–1850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG, Thiaw WM, Kumar V (1996) Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA. Weather Forecasting, 11: 506–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Below R, Grover-Kopec E, Dilley M (2007) Documenting drought-related disasters. A global reassessment. The Journal of Environment & Development, 16(3): 328–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bingfang W (2007) Introduction of China cropwatch system with remote sensing. ISPRS Archives XXXVI-8/W48 Workshop proceedings: Remote Sensing Support to Crop Yield Forecast and Area Estimates, Stresa, Italy (Eds. Baruth B, Royer A, Genovese G), 30 November–1 December 2006

    Google Scholar 

  • Boken VK, Cracknell AP, Heathcote RL (2005) Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study, Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Brandon DG (2005) Using NWSRFS ESP for making early outlooks of seasonal runoff volumes into lake powell. AMS Forum: Living with a Limited Water Supply, San Diego, 9–13 March 2005

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown ME (2008) Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, Piechotab TC, Dracup JA, McMahon TA (1998) El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: links and potential for forecasting. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1–4): 138–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, McMahon TA (2002) Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 47: 505–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Environment Agency (2006) Drought Plan for North West Region. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Fair KA, McKenzie RS, Craig AR (2003) Using real time data and a flow prediction model to assist in the operation of the Orange River. In Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction (Eds. Zschau J, Kueppers AN), Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Funk CC, Brown M (2006) Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa. Remote Sensing of Environment, 101(2): 249–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • The Geological Society of America (2007) Managing drought: a roadmap for change in the United States. A Conference Report from Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments – Creating a Roadmap for Change in the United States, Longmont, Colorado, 18–20 September 2006

    Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (convener) (2004) Usable Science 8: Early Warning Systems: Do’s and Don’ts Report of Workshop, Shanghai, 20−23 October 2003

    Google Scholar 

  • Guha-Sapir D, Hargitt D, Hoyois P (2004) Thirty years of natural disasters 1974–2003: the numbers. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) Report. UCL Presse Universitaires de Louvain, Brussels. http://www.cred.be/cred1/publicat/online.htm. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Gustard A, van Lanen HAJ, Tallaksen LM (2004) Outlook. http://Chapter 12 in Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Developments in Water Science 48 (Eds. Tallaksen L M, Van Lanen HAJ), Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Hansen JW, Challinor A, Ines A, Wheeler T, Moron V (2006) Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Climate Research, 33: 27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes MJ (2006) Drought Indices. http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Hoerling M, Kumar A (2003) The perfect ocean for drought. Science, 299(5607): 691–694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huband M, Sene KJ (2005) Integrated catchment modelling issues for flow forecasting applications. Scottish Hydraulics Study Group, Catchment Modelling for Flood Risk Management, 18 March 2005

    Google Scholar 

  • Husak G (2005) Methods for the Statistical Evaluation of African Precipitation. University of California, Santa Barbara

    Google Scholar 

  • Justice C, Becker-Reshef I (2007) Report from the Workshop on Developing a Strategy for Global Agricultural Monitoring in the framework of Group on Earth Observations (GEO), FAO, Rome, 16–18 July 2007

    Google Scholar 

  • Laughlin G, Clark A (2000) Drought science and drought policy in Australia: a risk management perspective. Expert Group Meeting on Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management, Lisbon, Portugal, 5–7 September 2000

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1995) Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Climatic Change, 70: 221–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore RJ, Jones DA, Black KB (1989) Risk assessment and drought management in the Thames basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 34(6): 705–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullusky M, DeWeese M, Welles E, Schaake J (2003) Information and Products Derived from Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts. 83rd American Meteorological Society Meeting, Long Beach, CA, 9–13 February 2003

    Google Scholar 

  • NIDIS (2007) The National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan. A Pathway for National Resilience. http://www.drought.gov/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • NOAA (2009) The NOAA Climate Prediction Center African Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2.0. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, US Weather Bureau, Washington, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer WC (1968) Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: the new crop moisture index. Weatherwise, 21(4): 156–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmer T, Hagedorn R (Eds.) (2006) Predictability of Weather and Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review, 115: 1606–1626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropelewski CF, Folland CF (2000) Prospects for the prediction of meteorological drought. In Drought: A Global Assessment (Ed. Wilhite DA). Natural Hazards and Disasters Series, Routledge, London, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Samra JS (2004) Review and Analysis of Drought Monitoring, Declaration, and Management in India. Working Paper 84, International Water Management Institute http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Working_Papers/index.aspx. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Senay GB, Verdin J (2003) Characterisation of yield reduction in Ethiopia using a GIS-based crop water balance model. The Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 29(6): 687–692

    Google Scholar 

  • Shafer BA, Dezman LE (1982) Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. In Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

    Google Scholar 

  • Sivakumar MVK (2006) Climate prediction and agriculture: current status and future challenges. Climate Research, 33: 3–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith K (2007) Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. (4th Ed.). Routledge, London and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Stone RC, Meinke H (2005) Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463): 2109–2124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svoboda M, Lecomte G, Hayes M, Heim R, Gleason K, Angel J, Rippey B, Tinker R, Palecki M, Stooksbury D, Miskus D, Stephens S (2002) The Drought Monitor. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8): 1181–1190

    Google Scholar 

  • Tallaksen LM, Van Lanen HAJ (2004) Hydrological Drought: Processes and Estimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater. Developments in Water Science 48, Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Tannehill IR (1947) Drought and Its Causes and Effects. Princeton University Press, Princeton

    Google Scholar 

  • Troccoli A, Harrison M, Anderson DLT, Mason SJ (2008) Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk. NATO Science Series IV: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 82, Springer, Dordrecht

    Google Scholar 

  • UN/ISDR (2007) Drought risk reduction framework and practices: Contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for action. United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR), Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • United Utilities (2008) Final Statutory Drought Plan. http://www.unitedutilities.com. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • USACE (1994) Managing water for drought. National Study of Water Management during Drought. IWR REPORT 94-NDS-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Verdin J, Klaver R (2002) Grid cell based crop water accounting for the Famine Early Warning System. Hydrological Processes, 16: 1617–1630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verdin J, Funk C, Senay G, Choularton R (2005) Climate science and famine early warning. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360: 2155–2168. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vogel C, O’Brien K (2006) Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies. Climate Research, 33: 111–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weerts AH, Berendrecht WL, Veldhuizen A, Goorden N, Vernimmen R, Lourens A, Prinsen G, Mulder M, Kroon T, Stam J (2009) Drought Forecasting System of the Netherlands. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 11, EGU2009-1765-2, EGU General Assembly 2009

    Google Scholar 

  • Western Governors’ Association (2004) The National Integrated Drought Information System: Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century. http://www.drought.gov/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009

  • Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water International, 10: 111–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (Ed.) (2000) Drought: A Global Assessment. Natural Hazards and Disasters Series, Routledge, London, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (Ed.) (2005) Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA, Knutson CL (2008) Drought management planning: conditions for success. Options Mediterraneennes Series A, 80: 141–148

    Google Scholar 

  • Wood AW, Lettenmaier DP (2006) A test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(12): 1699–1712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (1994) Guide to Hydrological Practices (5th Ed.). WMO No.168, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (2000) Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting (Eds. Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MV K, Wood DA), Lisbon, Portugal, September 5–7, 2000. WMO/TD No. 1037, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (2006) Drought Monitoring and Early Warning: Concepts, Progress and Future Challenges. WMO-No. 1006, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (2009) Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices (GAMP) (3rd Ed.). (WMO-No.134), Geneva

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atkins Water, Warrington, Cheshire, UK

    Kevin Sene

Authors
  1. Kevin Sene
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kevin Sene .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Sene, K. (2010). Droughts. In: Hydrometeorology. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_8

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation