Abstract
Flood warnings provide a well established way to help to reduce the risks to life and property during flood events. Hydrological forecasts are often used as a component of flood warning systems, and can improve the accuracy of warnings and the lead time available, giving more time to protect property and evacuate areas at risk. The lead time may also be extended by using Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and other meteorological forecasts. The types of hydrological models which are used include rainfall-runoff, flow routing and hydrodynamic models, as well as more empirical approaches, such as peak to peak correlations. Models are usually operated within a forecasting system which gathers data, schedules model runs, and post-processes model outputs into map-based and other products. Data assimilation techniques are also widely used both to initialize model runs, and in the post-processing of model outputs. This chapter provides an introduction to these topics, and discusses developing areas such as decision support systems for flood event management, and the use of ensemble flood forecasts.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
ACTIF (2004) Some research needs for river flood forecasting in FP6. Achieving Technological Innovation in Flood Forecasting. European Commission Project EVK1-CT-2002-80014. http://www.actif-ec.net. Accessed 14 July 2009
ACTIF (2005) Proceedings of the International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, Tromso, Norway, 17–19 October 2005. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Alavi N, Warland JS, Berg AA (2009) Assimilation of soil moisture and temperature data into land surface models: a survey. In Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications. Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg
Andryszewski A, Evans K, Haggett C, Mitchell B, Whitfield D, Harrison T (2005) Levels of service approach to flood forecasting and warning. ACTIF International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, 17–19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Bates BC, Kundzewicz ZW, Wu S, Palutikof JP (Eds.) (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210Â pp.
Becerra-Fernandez I, Prietula M, Madey G, Rodriguez R (2007) Project ENSAYO: a virtual emergency operations center for disaster management research, training and discovery. The International Conference on Global Defense and Business Continuity, Silicon Valley
Beckers J, Sprokkereef E, Roscoe K (2008) Use of Bayesian Model Averaging to determine uncertainties in river discharge and water level forecasts. 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence, 6–8 May 2008, Toronto, Canada. http://www.ifi-home.info/isfd4/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Bell VA, Moore RJ, Brown V (2000) Snowmelt forecasting for flood warning in upland Britain. In Lees M, Walsh P (Eds.), Flood Forecasting: What does Current Research Offer the Practitioner. BHS Occasional Paper 12, British Hydrological Society, London
Bergström S (1995) The HBV model. In Singh VP (Ed.), Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO
Beven KJ (2001) Rainfall Runoff Modelling – The Primer. Wiley, Chichester
Beven KJ (2008) Environmental Modeling: An Uncertain Future. Routledge, London
Burnash RJC (1995) The NWS river forecast system – catchment modeling. In Singh VP (Ed.), Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO
Butts MB, Falk AK, Hartnack J, Madsen H, Klinting A, van Kalken T, Cadman D, Price D (2005) Ensemble based methods for data assimilation and uncertainty estimation in the FLOODRELIEF project. ACTIF International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, 17–19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Carsell KM, Pingel ND, Ford DT (2004) Quantifying the benefit of a flood warning system. Natural Hazards Review, ASCE, 5:131–140, August
Chen Y, Sene KJ, Hearn K (2005) Converting Section 105 or SFRM hydrodynamic river models for real time forecasting applications. 40th Defra Flood and Coastal Defence Conference, York, England
Cloke HL, Pappenberger F (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 375: 613–626
Cole SJ, Moore RJ (2009) Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins. Advances in Water Resources, 32(7): 1107–1120
Collier CG (2007) Flash flood forecasting: what are the limits of predictability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133: 3–23
Collischonn W, Allasia DG, Silva BC, Tucci CEM (2007) The MGB-IPH model for large scale rainfall runoff modeling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5): 878–895
Daly SF (2003) A state–space model for river ice forecasting. Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory report ERDC/CRREL TR-03-9, New Hampshire. http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/techpub/CRREL_Reports/html_files/Cat_D.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Dawson CW, Wilby RL (1999) A comparison of artificial neural networks used for flow forecasting. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 3: 529–540
Day GN (1985) Extended streamflow forecasting using NWSRFS. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 111(2): 157–170
Drabek TE (2000) The social factors that constrain human responses to flood warnings. In Parker DJ (Ed.), Floods. Routledge, London
Emergency Management Australia (1999) Guide 5 – Flood Warning. Australian Emergency Manuals Series, Part III Emergency Management Practice, Volume 3 (2nd Ed.). http://www.ema.gov.au/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Environment Agency (2003) Catchment Flood Management Plans. Guidance on catchment hydrological and hydraulic modeling. http://www.mdsf.co.uk/downloads/procedures_and_userguide.shtml. Accessed 14 July 2009
Environment Agency (2007) Extreme event recognition Phase 2. Joint Defra/Environment Agency Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme, R&D Technical Report FD2208/TR
Essery R, Rutter N, Pomeroy J, Baxter R, Stähli M, Gustafsson D, Barr A, Bartlett P, Elder K (2009) SnowMIP2: An Evaluation of Forest Snow Process Simulations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(8): 1120–1135
EXCIMAP (2007) Handbook on good practices for flood mapping in Europe: Annex 2, Chapter 7, Evacuation Maps. European exchange circle on flood mapping. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/flood_risk/flood_atlas/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Georgakakos KP (2006) Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance. Journal of Hydrology, 317: 81–103
Goswami M, O’Connor KM, Bhattarai KP, Shamseldin AY (2005) Assessing the performance of eight real time updating models and procedures for the Brosna River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 394–411. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/9/394/2005/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Handmer J (2002) Flood warning reviews in North America and Europe: statements and silence. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 17(3): 17–24
Hock R (2003) Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. Journal of Hydrology, 282(1–4): 104–115
Hopson T, Webster P (2008) Three-Tier Flood and Precipitation Forecasting Scheme for South-East Asia. http://cfab2.eas.gatech.edu. Accessed 14 July 2009
Huaimin G (2005) Flood forecasting and management in China. ACTIF International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, 17–19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2003) Forecast Verification. A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley, Chichester
Koren V, Reed S, Smith M, Zhang Z, Seo DJ (2004) Hydrology laboratory research modeling system (HL-RMS) of the National Weather Service. Journal of Hydrology, 291(3/4): 297–318
Krzysztofowicz R (2001) The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. Journal of Hydrology, 249: 2–9
Krzysztofowicz R, Maranzano CJ (2004) Hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic stage transition forecasting. Journal of Hydrology, 293(1–4): 57–73
Kubat I, Sayed M, Savage S, Carrieres T (2005) Implementation and testing of a thickness redistribution model for operational ice forecasting. Proceedings 18th International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions, POAC’05, 2: 781–791, Potsdam, USA
Laio F, Tamea S (2007) Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11: 1267–1277. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1267/2007/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Le Dimet F-X, Castaings W, Ngnepieba P, Vieux B (2009) Data assimilation in hydrology: variational approach. In Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications. Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg
Lees M, Young P, Ferguson S, Beven KJ, Burns J (1994) An adaptive flood warning system for the river Nith at Dumfries. In (Eds. White WR, Watts J), 2nd International Conference on River Flood Hydraulics. Wiley, Chichester
Leopold LB, Wolman MG, Miller JP (1995) Fluvial Processes in Geomorphology. Dover, New York
Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF (1993) Hydrologic forecasting. In (Ed. Maidment DR), Handbook of Hydrology. Chapter 26, McGraw-Hill, USA
Lindström G, Johannson B, Persson M, Gardelin M, Bergström S (1997) Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 201: 272–288.
MacFarlane R (2005). A Guide to GIS Applications in Integrated Emergency Management. Emergency Planning College, Cabinet Office, London
Madsen H (2000) Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives. Journal of Hydrology, 235(3–4): 276–288
Mahabir C, Hicks FE, Robichaud C, Fayek AR (2006) Forecasting breakup water levels at Fort McMurray, Alberta, using multiple linear regression. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 33(9): 1227–1238
Martina MLV, Todini E, Libralon A (2006) A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10: 413–426. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/413/2006/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Martini F, De Roo A (Eds.) (2007) EXCIFF guide: good practice for delivering flood related information to the general public. European Commission/Joint Research Centre report EUR22760EN. http://exciff.jrc.it/downloads/exciff-related-documents/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Mens MJP, Erlich M, Gaume E, Lumbroso D, Moreda Y, van der Vat M, Versini PA (2008) Frameworks for flood event management. Floodsite Report T19-07-03 http://www.floodsite.net/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Meon G (2006) Past and present challenges in flash flood forecasting. WMO International Workshop on Flash Flood Forecasting, March 13–17 2006, Costa Rica. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/iao/iao_FFW.php. Accessed 14 July 2009
Moore RJ (1999) Real-time flood forecasting systems: perspectives and prospects. In (Eds. R Casale and C Margottini), Floods and Landslides: Integrated Risk Assessment. Chapter 11, 147–189, Springer Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg
Moore RJ (2007) The PDM rainfall runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(1): 483–499
Morse B, Hicks F (2005) Advances in river ice hydrology 1999–2003. Hydrological Processes, 19(1): 247–263
Nemec (1986) Hydrological Forecasting: Design and Operation of Hydrological Forecasting Systems. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht
NOAA/NWS (1997) Automated local flood warning systems handbook, weather service hydrology handbook No. 2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Office of Hydrology, Washington, DC. http://www.weather.gov/oh/docs/alfws-handbook/. Accessed 14 July 2009
NOAA/NWS (2003) Flash flood guidance improvement team. National Weather Service Final Report: February 6, 2003, Washington, DC, USA. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/rfcdev/. Accessed 14 July 2009
NOAA-USGS (2005) NOAA-USGS debris-flow warning system. Final Report: US Geological Survey Circular 1283. http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2005/1283/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Norbiato D, Borga M, Dinale R (2009) Flash flood warning in ungauged basins by use of the flash flood guidance and model-based runoff thresholds. Meteorological Applications, 16(1): 65–75
Obled C, Bontron G, Garcon R (2002) Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmospheric Research, 63: 303–324
Office of Science and Technology (2003) Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project. Phase 1 Technical Report Drivers, Scenarios and Work Plan, Office of Science and Technology, London, January 2003 http://www.foresight.gov.uk/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Overeem A (2005) Description of the River Rhine basin. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) http://www.knmi.nl/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Palmer TN, Räisänen J (2002) Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature, 415: 512–514
Paquet E, Garcon R (2004) Hydrometeorological forecast at EDF-DTG MORDOR hydrological model. 4th International MOPEX Workshop, July 2004, Paris
Parker DJ (2003) Designing flood forecasting, warning and response systems from a societal perspective. Paper presented at the International Conference on Alpine Meteorology and Meso-Alpine Programme, 21 May 2003, Brig, Switzerland. http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Parker D, Tunstall S, Wilson T (2005) Socio-economic benefits of flood forecasting and warning. ACTIF International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, 17–19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Parmet, BWAH, Sprokkereef, E (1997) Hercalibratie Model Lobith: Onderzoek naar mogelijke verbeteringen van de voorspellingen met het meervoudig lineaire regressie Model Lobith na de hoogwaters van 1993 en 1995, RIZA, Lelystad
Paudyal GN (2002) Forecasting and warning of water-related disasters in a complex hydraulic setting—the case of Bangladesh. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Special Issue: Towards Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development, 47(S): S5–S18, August
Quick MC (1995) The UBC watershed model. In (Ed.Singh VP), Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO
Rebora N, Ferraris L, von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A (2006) Rainfall downscaling and flood forecasting: a case study in the Mediterranean area. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 6: 611–619
Reed DW (1984) A review of British flood forecasting practice. Institute of Hydrology, Report No. 90, Wallingford
Reed S, Schaake J, Zhang Z (2007) A distributed hydrologic model and threshold frequency-based method for flash flood forecasting at ungauged locations. J. Hydrology, 337(3–4): 402–420
Refsgaard JC (1997) Validation and intercomparison of different updating procedures for real-time forecasting. Nordic Hydrology, 28(2): 65–84
Schaake JC, Hamill TM, Buizza R, Clark M (2007) HEPEX the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88: 1541–1547. http://ams.allenpress.com/. Accessed 14 July 2009
Scheuren J-M, le Polain de Waroux O, Below R, Guha-Sapir D, Ponserre S (2007) Annual disaster statistical review: the numbers and trends 2007. Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Brussels. http://www.emdat.be. Accessed 14 July 2009
Sene K (2008) Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response. Springer, Dordrecht
Seo D-J, Cajina L, Corby R, Howieson T (2009) Automatic state updating for operational streamflow forecasting via variational data assimilation. Journal of Hydrology, 367(3–4): 255–275
Serban P, Askew AJ (1991) Hydrological forecasting and updating procedures. IAHS Publ. No. 201: 357–369
Shrestha DL, Solomatine DP (2008) Data-driven approaches for estimating uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling. Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2): 109–122
Simonovic SP, Ahmad S (2005) Computer-based model for flood evacuation emergency planning. Natural Hazards, 34: 25–51
Singh VP (Ed.) (1995) Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO
Sprokkereef, E (2002) Flood Forecasting for the River Rhine in the Netherlands. The Extremes of the Extremes: Extraordinary Floods. Proc. Symp. Reykjavik, Iceland, July 2000. IAHS Publ. 271
Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M-H, de Roo A (2009) The European Flood Alert System – Part 1: concept and development. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13: 125–140. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/125/2009. Accessed 14 July 2009
Tilford KA, Sene KJ, Khatibi R (2007) Flood forecasting model selection: a structured approach. In (Eds. Begum S, Stive MJF, Hall JW), Flood Risk Management in Europe. Springer, Dordrecht
Todini E (2007) Hydrological catchment modeling: past, present and future. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(1): 468–482
Todini E (2008) A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2): 123–137
Todini E (2009) Predictive uncertainty assessment in real time flood forecasting. In (Eds. Baveye PC, Laba M, Mysiak J ), Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Springer, Dordrecht
USACE (1994) Framework for estimating national economic development benefits and other beneficial effects of flood warning and preparedness systems. US Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources Report IWR-94-3, Alexandria, Virginia
USACE (1996) Hydrologic aspects of flood warning-preparedness programs. US Army Corps of Engineers Report ETL 1110-2-540, Office of Chief of Engineers, Washington, DC. http://www.tpub.com/content/USACETechnicalletters/ETL-1110-2-540/index.htm. Accessed 14 July 2009
Vehviläinen B, Huttunen M, Huttunen I (2005) Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Monitoring in Finland: the Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS). ACTIF International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, 17–19 October 2005, Tromsø, Norway. http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Vieux BE, Bedient PE, Mazroi E (2005) Real-time urban runoff simulation using radar rainfall and physics-based distributed modeling for site-specific forecasts. 10th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Copenhagen/Denmark, 21–26 August 2005
Webster PJ, Hoyos C (2004) Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30 day time scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85: 1745–1765, November
Weerts AH, El Sarafy G (2006) Particle filtering and ensemble Kalman Filtering state updating with hydrological conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resources Research, 42: W09403, 1–17. doi:10.1029/2005WR004093
Weerts A, de Jeu R, Reggiani P, Dhondia J, de Wit M, Kwadijk J (2008) On the use of satellite-derived soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting: a case study for the river Rhine. Catchment-scale Hydrological Modelling & Data Assimilation International Workshop, 9–11 January 2008, Melbourne, Australia. http://www.cahmda3.info/program http://www.actif-ec.net/conference2005/proceedings/index.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Werner M, Cranston M, Harrison T, Whitfield D, Schellekens J (2009) Recent developments in operational flood forecasting in England, Wales and Scotland. Meteorological Applications, 16(1): 13–22
White KD (2003) Review of prediction methods for breakup ice jams. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 30: 89–100
Wilks DS (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. (2nd Ed.). Academic Press, Burlington, MA
Wöhling TH, Lennartz F, Zappa M (2006) Technical note: updating procedure for flood forecasting with conceptual HBV-type models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10:783–788. http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/783/2006/hess-10-783-2006.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Wolshon B, Urbina E, Wilmot C, Levitan M (2005) Review of policies and practices for hurricane evacuation. I: transportation planning, preparedness, and response. Natural Hazards Review, 6(3): 129–142
Wood AW, Lettenmaier DP (2006) A test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87: 1699–1712, December
Wood AW, Schaake JC (2008) Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9(1): 132–148
World Meteorological Organisation (1973) Benefit and cost analysis of hydrological forecasts: a state of the art report. Operational Hydrology Report No. 3, WMO No. 341, Geneva
World Meteorological Organisation (1982) Flash flood forecasting. Operational Hydrology Report No. 18, WMO No. 577, Geneva
World Meteorological Organisation (1992) Simulated real time intercomparison of hydrological models. Operational Hydrology Report No. 38, Geneva
World Meteorological Organisation (1994) Guide to Hydrological Practices (5th Ed.). WMO No. 168, Geneva
World Meteorological Organisation (2006) Proceedings of the First International Flash Flood Forecasting Workshop, World Meteorological Organisation, March 13–17 2006, San Jose, Costa Rica. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/iao/iao_FFW.php. Accessed 14 July 2009
World Meteorological Organisation (2008) Technical Regulations – Volume III – Hydrology. 2006 edition, Suppl. No. 1 (I.2008), Geneva
Yang Z, Han D (2006) Derivation of unit hydrograph using a transfer function approach. Water Resources Research, 42(1): 1–9
Young PC (2002) Advances in real-time flood forecasting, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 360: 1434–1450
Young P, Leedal D, Beven K (2009) Reduced order emulation of distributed hydraulic simulation models. Paper WeB7.2. 15th IFAC Symposium on System Identification, July 6–8, 2009, Saint-Malo, France. https://ifac.papercept.net/conferences/conferences/SYSID09/program/SYSID09_ContentListWeb_3.html. Accessed 14 July 2009
Young PC, Ratto M (2009) A unified approach to environmental systems modeling. Journal Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(7): 1037–1057
Younis J, Anquetin S, Thielen J (2008) The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12: 1039–1051
Zhao RJ (1992) The Xin’anjiang model applied in China. Journal of Hydrology, 135: 371–381
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sene, K. (2010). Floods. In: Hydrometeorology. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-3402-1
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-3403-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)