Abstract
Water management is, by definition, conflict management. It is a resource on which we all depend, it fluctuates in time and space and its management is usually fragmented. That said, there is no such thing as managing water for a single purpose — all water management is multi-objective and based on navigating competing interests. Nevertheless, conflict is not a given. While it may be the focus of press reports of international waters, there is clear evidence from around the world that water issues also induce cooperation. This is even the case in “hostile” basins where disputes rage over other issues, such as the Jordan River basin. There is certainly a long history of tensions over, or related to, shared freshwater resources, but there is also a lengthy, and in many ways deeper, history of water-related cooperation. Despite empirical research that finds that water-related cooperation overwhelms conflict over the last 50 years (see, most recently, Wolf et al., 2003), prevailing theories fail to explain this phenomenon. Why do countries that share a basin cooperate on water, even when they will not cooperate over other issues? By any quantitative measure, water should be the most conflictive of resources, not an elixir that drives enemies to craft functioning and resilient institutional arrangements. We examine these questions historically, yet, recognizing that history-based indicators may lose validity over time in a rapidly changing world, we focus on future issues that may look nothing like the past. Five critical areas related to water resources will change dramatically in coming years:
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1.
New technologies for negotiation and management are being implemented, changing the face of both.
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2.
Globalization, privatization and the WTO are impacting our valuation of water, and its place in relation to rights and responsibilities.
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3.
Global climate change may shift precipitation patterns, dramatically impacting water resources management.
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4.
The geopolitics of desalination is shifting, as cost becomes viable at a larger scale.
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5.
The nature of conflict and cooperation are changing in both scope and scale. Keywords: Shared waters; transboundary waters; hydropolitics; desalination; WTO
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Wolf, A.T. (2009). A Long-Term View of Water and Security: International Waters, National Issues and Regional Tensions. In: Lipchin, C., Sandler, D., Cushman, E. (eds) The Jordan River and Dead Sea Basin. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2989-8_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2989-8_1
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