Risk Futures in Europe
In this section scenario as a concept and a tool will be discussed, tracing a path from the very general and theoretical to the more applied aspects. The notable chapter “The History of the Future”, appearing in a book by Rescher (1991), will be taken as a starting reference. Rescher discusses the increasing importance of futurology in today’s practical life, including policy and science (see also Oreskes, 2000). This focus on the future has become extremely important because of the rapid quantitative and qualitative changes experienced in modern life. It is also a consequence of the role played by science in society in supporting decision-making processes, particularly in the field of risks and environmental issues in general.
KeywordsRisk Future Critical Infrastructure Lightning Activity SRES Scenario Probabilistic Risk Assessment
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