Predictability of SOC Systems. Technological Extreme Events

Abstract

The growth of societal networks of every kind (information, communication, transportation, etc.), the progressive interpenetration of natural and artificial systems, and the continually increasing complexity¹ of human organizations and institutions promises to magnify the impacts and to generate new types and combinations of technological extreme events. Given these observations, extreme events emerge as a powerful focus for organizing research activities that can advance scientific knowledge and benefit society.

The possibility to develop some new tools, as exploratory model, open new possibility research to forecast complex adaptive model and to predict Technological Extreme Events on SOC system.

Whereas complex adaptive systems and agent-based models of them originally seemed to pose a problem for policy analysis, they may also present an opportunity. The failure of computerized decision support systems to provide significant help for most problems is striking when contrasted with the impact of computer technology in other spheres. Looking back, we can now see that most policy problems involve complex and adaptive systems, and that for those problems the classical approaches of predictive modeling and optimization that have been used in decision support software are not appropriate. The next stage in the development of complexity science could well include a reformulation of decision theory and the emergence of the first really useful computer-assisted reasoning for policy analysis.