Bayesian Reliability Inference on Innovated Automotive Components
The need to assess the reliability of new automotive products in a timely manner compels manufacturers to make use of early failure warranty data. However, the narrow observation period and the moderate sizes of early warranty data sets result in reliability estimates that are not very accurate. Nevertheless, when a new product is not revolutionary but instead the result of making improvements to its predecessors, past failure data in conjunction with corporate technical knowledge are a valuable source of information which can be usefully exploited in a Bayesian estimation framework. To this end, a Bayesian procedure was developed which is based on a rigorous formalization of both objective information provided by observed failure data for past products as well as subjective information on the effectiveness of design or process modifications introduced into new products to improve their reliability. Information on modified working conditions is also formalized, and the effect of requested cost reductions for outsourced components is considered. The proposed procedure is then applied to a case study relating to a newly revised component that is assembled in a car model that was already on the market, and its ability to support reliability estimates and management decisions is addressed.
KeywordsFailure Probability Posterior Density Past Product Past Data Warranty Period
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Campean, I.F., Kuhn, P.P., Khan, M.K.: Reliability analysis of automotive field failure warranty data. In: Zio, E., Demichela, M., Piccinini, N. (eds.): Safety and Reliability: Towards a Safer World. Politecnico di Torino. Torino, pp. 1337–1344 (2001)Google Scholar
- Grohowski, G., Hausman, W.C., Lamberson, L.R.: A Bayesian statistical inference approach to automotive reliability estimation. J. Qual. Technol. 8, 197–208 (1976)Google Scholar
- Guida, M., Pulcini, G.: Early reliability testing of automotive components by using past data and technical information. In: Proc. Int. Conf. on Degradation, Damage, Fatigue and Accelerated Life Models in Reliability Testing, Angers, France, pp. 54–61, 22–24 May (2006)Google Scholar
- Guida, M., Pulcini, G., Vianello, M.: Early inference on reliability of upgraded automotive components by using past data and technical information. J. Stat. Plan. Infer, (in press) (2008), (doi: 10.106/j.jspi.2007.08.008)Google Scholar
- Lu, M.-W., Rudy, R.J.: Reliability test target development. In: Proc. Annu. Reliability and Maintainability Symp., Los Angeles, USA, pp. 77–81, 24-27 Jan. (2000)Google Scholar
- Vianello, M.: A Bayesian reliability estimate in the automotive context (in Italian). Associazione Tecnica dell’ Automobile 34, 618–624 (1981)Google Scholar