Skip to main content

Correlation, Uncertainty and Investment Decisions

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Book cover Risk-Return Relationship and Portfolio Management

Part of the book series: India Studies in Business and Economics ((ISBE))

  • 1275 Accesses

Abstract

Capital market efficiency is a matter of great interest for policymakers and investors in designing investment strategy. If efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds true, it will prevent the investors to realize extra return by utilizing the inherent information of stocks. They will realize extra returns only by incorporating the extra risky stocks in their portfolios. While empirical tests of EMH and risk –return relationship are plentiful for developed stock markets, the focus on emerging stock markets like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc., began with the liberalization of financial systems in these markets. With globalization and deregulation, the enormous opportunities of investment in South Asian stock markets have attracted the domestic and foreign institutional investors in general, and to reduce their portfolio risk by diversifying their funds across the markets in particular.

The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.

Peter Lynch

This chapter draws from the author’s previous publication (Kumar & Dhankar, 2009), co-authored with Rakesh Kumar, Assistant Professor in the Department of Business Studies, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya College (University of Delhi), New Delhi; originally published in VIKALPA: The Journal for Decision Makers, Vol. 34 No. 4. Copyright © 2009 Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. All rights reserved. Reproduced with the permission of the copyright holders and the publishers, SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 99.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Aggarwal, R., & Rivoli, P. (1989). Seasonal and day of the week effects in four emerging stock markets. The Financial Review, 24(4), 541–550.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aggarwal, R., Inclan, C., & Leal, R. (1999). Volatility in emerging markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 34(1), 33–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akgiray, V. (1989). Conditional heteroskedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecast. Journal of Business, 62(1), 55–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bae, K.-H., & Karolyi, G. A. (1994). Good news, bad news and international spillovers of stock return volatility between Japan and the U.S. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2(4), 405–438.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balaban, E., Bayar, A., & Kan, O. B. (2001). Stock returns, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in world equity markets. Applied Economic Letters, 8(4), 263–268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bekaert, G., & Harvey, C. R. (2000). Foreign speculator and emerging equity markets. Journal of Finance, 55(2), 565–613.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., & Lundblad, C. T. (2001). Emerging equity markets and economic development. Journal of Development Economics, 66(2), 465–504.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bekaert, G., & Wu, G. (2000). Asymmetric volatility and risks in equity markets. The Review of Financial Studies, 13(1), 1–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black, A., & Fraser, P. (1995). UK stock return: Predictability and business conditions. The Mancherster School of Economic & Social Studies, 63, 85–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bollerslev, T., Chou, R. Y., & Kroner, K. F. (1992). ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Econometrics, 52(1), 5–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bracker, K., Docking, D. S., & Koch, P. D. (1999). Economic determinates of evolution in international stock market integration. Journal of Empirical Finance, 6(1), 1–27.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks, C. (1998). predicting stock index volatility: Can market volume help? Journal of Forecasting, 17(1), 59–80.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, J. Y., & Hentschel, L. (1992). No news is good news: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 31(3), 281–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung, C. S., & Lee, J. (1993). Integration vs. segmentation in the Korean stock market. Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting, 20(2), 267–273.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung, Y. L., & Mak, S. C. (1992). A study of the international transmission of stock market fluctuation between the developed markets and Asian Pacific market. Applied Financial Economics, 2(1), 43–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang, T. C., & Doong, S. C. (2001). Empirical analysis of stock returns and volatility: Evidence from seven Asian stock markets based on TAR-GARCH model. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 17(3), 301–318.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corhay, A., & Rad, T. (1994). Statistical properties of daily returns: Evidence from European stock markets. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 21(2), 271–282.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darrat, F. A., Zhong, M. (2001). Equity market integration and multinational trade agreements: The case of NAFTA. In Presentation to the 2001 Annual Meeting of Financial Management Association International, Toronto, Canada, October 17, 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dhankar, R. S., & Chakraborty, M. (2007). Non-linearities and GARCH effects in the emerging stock markets of South Asia. Vikalpa, 32(3), 23–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dhankar, R. S., & Kumar, R. (2006). Risk-return relationship and effect of diversification on non-market risk: Application of market index model in Indian stock market. Journal of Financial Management and Analysis, 19(2), 22–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R., & Ng, V. K. (1993). Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility. Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1749–1778.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ewing, B. T., Payne, J. E., & Sowell, C. (1999). NAFTA and North American stock market linkages: An empirical note. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2), 443–451.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faff, W. F., & Mckenzie, M. D. (2007). The relationship between implied volatility and autocorrelation. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 3(2), 191–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Jong, F., & de Roon, F. (2001). Time varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets. Discussion Paper Series: Centre for Economic Policy Research, London, December.

    Google Scholar 

  • French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., & Stambaugh, R. F. (1987). Expected stock returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 3–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., & Runkle, D. (1993). On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1779–1801.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamao, Y., Masulis, R., & Ng, V. (1990). Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets. Review of Financial Studies, 3(2), 281–307.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho, R. Y.-K., & Cheung, Y.-L. (1994). Seasonal pattern in volatility in Asian stock markets. Applied Financial Economics, 4(1), 61–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jarrett, J., & Kyper, E. (2005). Daily variation, capital market efficiency and predictability stock market returns. Management Research News, 28(8), 34–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jarrett, J., & Kyper, E. (2006). Capital market efficiency and the predictability of daily returns. Applied Economics, 38(6), 631–636.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, R. A., & Soenen, L. (2002). Asian economic integration and stock market co-movement. Journal of Financial Research, 25(1), 141–157.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, R. A., & Soenen, L. (2003). Economic integration and stock market comovemnet in the Americas. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 13(1), 85–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karmakar, M. (2005). Modeling conditional volatility of the indian stock markets. Vikalpa, 30(3), 21–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karolyi, G. A., & Stulz, R. M. (1996). Why do markets move together? An investigation of U.S.-Japan stock return co-movements. Journal of Finance, 51(3), 951–986.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King, M., Sentara, E., & Wadhwani, S. (1994). Volatility and links between national stock markets. Econometrica, 62(4), 901–933.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King, M., & Wadhwani, S. (1990). Transmission of volatility between stock markets. Review of Financial Studies, 3(1), 5–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, K. K., & Mukhopadyay, C. (2002). Equity market inter linkages: Transmission of volatility-a case of US and India. NSE, India Research Paper, Source. www.nseindia.com.

  • Kumar, R., & Dhankar, R. S. (2009). Asymmetric volatility and cross correlations in stock returns under risk and uncertainty. VIKALPA: The Journal for Decision Makers, 34(4), 25–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, R. (2007). Economic growth and volatility in Indian stock market: A critical analysis. South Asian Journal of Management, 14(2), 47–59.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, I. (1992). Stock market seasonality: Some evidence from the Pacific-Basin countries. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 19(2), 199–210.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, S. Z., Lin, K. C., & Lai, S. M. (2006). Stock market interdependence and trade relations: A correlation test for the U.S. and Its trading partners. Economics Bulletin, 7(5), 1–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (2001). Long and short term dynamic causal transmission among international stock markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(4), 563–587.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McClure, K. G., Clayton, R., & Hofler, R. A. (1999). International capital structure differences among G7 nations: A current empirical view. The European Journal of Finance, 5(2), 141–164.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moorkejee, R., & Yu, Q. (1999). Seasonality in returns on the Chinese stock markets: The case of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Journal of Finance, 50(4), 93–105.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mossin, J. (1966). Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica, 34(4), 768–783.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mukherjee, K., & Mishra, R. K. (2007). International stock market integration and its economic determinates: A study of Indian and world equity markets. Vikalpa, 32(4), 29–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nath, G. C., & Verma, S. (2003). Study of common stochastic trend and co-integration in the emerging markets: A case of India, Singapore and Taiwan. NSE Research paper, www.nseindia.com.

  • Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey, I. M. (2002). Seasonality of Monthly stock returns: The Indian evidence. Journal of Applied Finance, 8(6), 53–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pretorius, E. (2002). Economic determinates of emerging stock market interdependence. Emerging Markets Review, 3(1), 84–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sasaki, H., Satoshi, Y., & Takamasa, H. (1999). The globalization of financial markets and monetary policy. Paper presented in the Bank for International Settlements, Annual Autumn Meeting, 25–26 October.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwert, G. W. (1990). Stock volatility and the crash of 87. Review of Financial Studies, 3(1), 77–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheng, H. C., & Tu, A. H. (2000). A study of co-integration and variance decomposition among national equity indices before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 10(3–4), 345–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsay, R. S. (1998). Testing and modeling multivariate threshold models. Journal of American Statistical Association, 93(443), 1188–1202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, G. (2001). The determinates of asymmetric volatility. The Review of Financial Studies, 14(3), 837–859.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Raj S. Dhankar .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature India Private Limited

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Dhankar, R.S. (2019). Correlation, Uncertainty and Investment Decisions. In: Risk-Return Relationship and Portfolio Management. India Studies in Business and Economics. Springer, New Delhi. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-3950-5_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-3950-5_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New Delhi

  • Print ISBN: 978-81-322-3948-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-81-322-3950-5

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics