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The Tesla Roadster: Running on Empty?

Valuing Distant Cash Flows and Real Options

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Cleaner-Energy Investments
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Abstract

Technology-intensive product development involves huge up-front investments into research design and development, prototype testing, standardization, and eventual commercialization. Often, such start-up ventures spend several years before they manage to achieve critical mass in sales volumes and to break even on their initial investments. Yet, such ventures are of great interest to equity investors owing to the potential upside that a breakthrough could generate, forcing well-established technology and mature industry players to play catch-up. The Roadster was the first of several electric vehicles (EVs) proposed to be commercially launched by California/Palo Alto-based Tesla Motors. The company had made substantial investments into the design and development of the product and a further few years making losses from the sale of the Roadster.

It’s a head-turner, jaw-dropper…If this is the future of the automobile, I want it.

—Warren Brown, The Washington Post, 25 January 2009

Tesla is arguably making the most exciting car in the world today.

—Gregory Kats, President of Capital-E and

Fmr. Director of Financing for RE and EE, Department of Energy, William J. Clinton Administration,

International Herald Tribune, 24 May 2013

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ GS-“TSLA”); the company was named after inventor and engineer Nikola Tesla who developed the three-phase electric motor like the one used in the Tesla Roadster.

  2. 2.

    Elon Musk was a quintessential technology professional, first becoming famous when he sold his online payments venture PayPal to eBay for USD 1.5 billion, and then with his space travel company SpaceX becoming the first privately funded company to send a cargo payload to the International Space Station and lately for the success achieved by his renewable energy service company SolarCity. Ib id.

  3. 3.

    Elon Musk himself acquired USD 100 million worth of common equity at the time of the company’s concurrent offering.

  4. 4.

    Based on daily closing stock prices published on http://finance.yahoo.com; and http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-motors-announces-offerings-common-202535246.html.

  5. 5.

    The energy management technology, the thermal management systems, and the engineering associated with their development could by themselves be adapted for energy storage for utility, community, and residential applications.

  6. 6.

    Author’s estimates for the purpose of the present analysis.

  7. 7.

    ib id.

  8. 8.

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/7-electric-cars-made-for-the-city-and-a-budget.html/?a=viewall, last accessed 30 July 2013.

  9. 9.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-stock-surged-9-bullish-201900398.html, last accessed 30 July 2013

  10. 10.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2014/05/28/sp-gives-tesla-a-junk-bond-rating-cites-vulnerable-business/, and http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-27/tesla-gets-unsolicited-junk-grade-from-s-p-on-niche-position.html, last accessed 15 June 2014.

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Correspondence to Srinivasan Sunderasan .

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Sunderasan, S. (2015). The Tesla Roadster: Running on Empty?. In: Cleaner-Energy Investments. Springer, New Delhi. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2062-6_9

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