Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Product Markets: Stochastic World Food Model Analysis
Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that the average air temperature at the end of the 21st century will rise by 4.0°C from current levels, according to the fossil energy intensive scenario. Agricultural production will be affected by global warming through changes in yields and market prices. The dominant factor in rising temperature is the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), which represents the greatest exhaust quantity among the greenhouse gases (GHG) and has increased in volume from 280 ppm in the pre-industrial period to 379 ppm in 2005.
Reprinted with permission of Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science from J. Furuya and S. Kobayashi, Sustain. Sci. 4(2009) 71–79. DOI 10.1007/s11625-008-0062-0
KeywordsGlobal Warming Gross Domestic Product Soybean Cyst Nematode Global Historical Climatology Network Data Distribution Centre
We would like to thank Dr. M. Nishimori of the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences for providing climate forecasting data for the A2 scenario from HadCM3 and actual data from the DDC. He calculated the average of these climate variables in each country and regions for flowering or silking seasons based on the cropping map of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) (1994). We also thank Dr. S. D. Meyer of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri for providing information on the procedure for multivariate stochastic simulation. This research is conducted by Project S4 of the Global Environment Research Fund of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.
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