Wind Power Generation’s Impact on Peak Time Demand and on Future Power Mix

Abstract

Although wind power is regarded as one of the ways to actively respond to climate change, the stability of the whole power system could be a serious problem in the future due to wind power’s uncertainties. These uncertainties include intermittency and the fact that wind power cannot be relied upon to supply energy “on demand,” including and especially during periods of peak demand. From this perspective, the peak-time impact of stochastic wind power generation is estimated using a simulation method that extends to 2030 based on the 3rd master plan for the promotion of new and renewable energy. Results show that the highest probability of wind power impact on peak time power supply could be up to 4.41% of total installed capacity in 2030. The impact of wind power generation on overall power mix is also analyzed up to 2030 using the screen curve method (SCM). The impact turns out to be relatively small, but the estimated investment cost to make up any lack of power generation through reliance on LNG power generation facilities is shown to be a significant burden on existing power companies.