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Hong Kong Model

  • Tzong-biau Lin
  • Win-lin Chou
Conference paper

Abstract

A few macroeconomic models exist for the Hong Kong economy. Two of them; namely, the Economic Research Center (EC) forecasting model and Hsueh-Chow model, have been published (Lin 1979a; Hsueh and Chow 1981) but one has not (Yik 1982). The former models used annual data, whereas the latter quarterly time series. The Hsueh-Chow model consists of only five equations, of which four are stochastic behavior equations and one is an identity. The ERC model is more disaggregated and has been used for the purpose of short-term forecasting over two to three years. Its 1983 version is presented here, and the structure and applications of the model are discussed. The development of and the forecast with each year’s version of the model have been carried out by the Economic Research Center and the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong for some six years. This experience may not be long enough when compared with the similar experiences of the established institutions in developed countries. It is perhaps long enough, however, to justify a discussion of some problems involved in applying econometric models to a developing economy like Hong Kong.

Keywords

Interest Rate Consumption Expenditure Capital Formation Saving Deposit Predetermined Variable 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Tokyo 1985

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tzong-biau Lin
    • 1
  • Win-lin Chou
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong KongChina

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