Abstract
Asia’s quick recovery after the global financial crisis raises an important question as to how a region that had suffered during the crisis could make a turnaround and break out of the recession ahead of other regions. This chapter argues that emerging Asia had built up enough resilience through extensive reform of its financial, corporate, and public sectors since the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. The region’s banking sector was not heavily loaded with non-performing assets, it did not indulge in acquiring US toxic assets, and maturity and currency mismatches in balance sheets had been by and large under control. Governance, transparency, and the financial soundness of the corporate sector had all improved. On macroeconomic policy, greater flexibility of foreign exchange rate systems softened the impact of the liquidity crunch. Finally, the depreciation of the region’s currencies against the US dollar during the height of the crisis subsequently helped to improve the competitiveness of exports to propel East Asia’s recovery.
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Notes
- 1.
Here, East Asia is defined as the region comprising ASEAN plus the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ASEAN+3).
- 2.
It should be noted, however, the heavy concentration has an advantage too: once a full recovery begins, output growth will accelerate.
- 3.
Consistent with the theory of international product fragmentation, ADB (2008) concluded that the story of decoupling, or uncoupling in their terminology, was no more than a myth. The report showed that emerging Asia is closely tied to global goods markets and impulses run from the US, EU, and Japan backward through the region. Another empirical study by Haltmaier et al. (2007) also challenged the role of the PRC as a regional engine of growth. It shows that external demand continues to be an important source of growth, and in particular for more advanced economies in the region. The PRC has become a more independent source of demand in recent years, but it is still more of a conduit importing parts and components from other countries in the region and assembling them into final goods to be exported. Ahearne et al. (2006) also show that the PRC and a group of other East Asia’s emerging economies maintain a complementary relationship in which their export expansion is driven by, among other factors, global growth.
- 4.
Athukorala and Kohpaiboon (2009) argued that international product fragmentation—the cross-border dispersion of component production and/or assembly within vertically integrated production processes—is an important driving source of the deepening intraregional trade integration in East Asia. Since the final destination of assembled goods is more likely to be elsewhere, for example, the US or Europe, he argues, that “product fragmentation has made the East Asian growth dynamism increasingly reliant on extra-regional trade.” If this is the case, a negative shock in the US or Europe would reduce imports of final goods from East Asia, thereby affecting the region’s business cycles and undermine the decoupling argument. Furthermore, since the bulk of these exports to the PRC represent a derived demand for the PRC’s exports to the US and EU, when the PRC’s export figures are adjusted, the US is still an important export market for ASEAN+3.
- 5.
Jia (2010) provided detailed effects of the fiscal stimulation package on output, income, and investment published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
- 6.
Much of this section is based on the Ha Noi conference on the social impact of the global recession, jointly organized by ADB, ASEAN Secretariat, and the governments of the PRC and Viet Nam and 12 development partners. The conference produced various background studies on the gender impact of the crisis. There were overview studies on gender and social protection impact in the footwear, electronics, car parts, call center, furniture-making, and toy-making sectors for Cambodia, the PRC, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In addition, a cross-sector study on gender implications of the crisis on informal sector workers in India and Thailand was prepared. The papers can be downloaded from the conference website at http://www.adb.org/Documents/Events/2009/Poverty-Social-Development/papers.asp.
- 7.
The numbers are based on the empirical relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction observed over 1990–2005 and the updated growth numbers and forecasts for 2005–2010 as indicated in the ADO Update of September 2009. The data consider population increase. The baseline scenario (without crisis) projects poverty in 2009 and 2010 based on 2007 growth rates. The calculation does not consider the extent to which growth is pro-poor, nor does it estimate growth on the average annual growth rate in GDP per capita from 2003 to 2007, as done in the November 2008 publication of ADB on the World Bank’s new poverty data. As a result, poverty reduction trends with and without crisis may be too optimistic. Figures from the World Bank, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP), and other United Nations institutions are also slightly lower, as they are based on even higher growth data and assumed better growth-poverty elasticities. World Bank estimates for East and Southeast Asia are 9 million additional poor in 2009 and 14 million in 2010.
- 8.
- 9.
The ratio of exports to GDP is close to 60 % in the Netherlands and it is about 45 % in the Republic of Korea on average in recent years. No one would argue that the Netherlands is a country pursuing an export-led industrialization.
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* The Asian Development Bank recognizes China by the name People’s Republic of China.
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Appendix 2.1 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product Growth by Sector and Country (Year-on-year % Points)
Appendix 2.1 Contribution to Gross Domestic Product Growth by Sector and Country (Year-on-year % Points)
Private consumption | Fixed investment | Government expenditure | Net exports | Inventories | GDP growth rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | − 2.6 | 0.2 | 2.5 |
Q4 2008 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | − 0.4 | − 1.5 | 1.0 |
Q1 2009 | − 0.2 | − 0.7 | 0.5 | 3.4 | − 1.0 | 1.0 |
Q2 2009 | 0.4 | − 1.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 | − 0.5 | 0.9 |
Q3 2009 | 0.7 | − 1.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | − 1.1 | 0.9 |
Q4 2009 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
Q1 2010 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | − 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
Q2 2010 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | − 1.8 | 0.4 | 3.1 |
Q3 2010 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | − 2.0 | − 0.3 | 2.7 |
Q4 2010 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | − 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
Q1 2011 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | − 3.2 | − 0.1 | 1.0 |
Q2 2011 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | − 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
India | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | − 4.7 | − 2.3 | 6.9 |
Q4 2008 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 5.2 | − 3.3 | − 2.1 | 3.1 |
Q1 2009 | 3.6 | − 0.2 | − 0.3 | 0.9 | − 2.0 | 3.9 |
Q2 2009 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | − 0.2 | 1.0 | 5.7 |
Q3 2009 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6.5 |
Q4 2009 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | − 0.7 | 1.1 | 7.0 |
Q1 2010 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 0.7 | − 3.0 | 2.0 | 12.6 |
Q2 2010 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | − 2.5 | 1.2 | 9.5 |
Q3 2010 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | − 0.8 | 1.1 | 8.9 |
Q4 2010 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 10.1 |
Q1 2011 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 7.7 |
Q2 2011 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | − 1.1 | 0.1 | 8.5 |
Q3 2011 | 1.8 | − 1.4 | 0.6 | 3.1 | − 0.2 | 6.7 |
Q4 2011 | 3.8 | − 0.4 | 0.5 | − 2.1 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
Indonesia | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | − 0.5 | 6.2 |
Q4 2008 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 5.3 |
Q1 2009 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | − 1.3 | 4.5 |
Q2 2009 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 4.1 |
Q3 2009 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 4.3 |
Q4 2009 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 |
Q1 2010 | 2.3 | 1.8 | − 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5.9 |
Q2 2010 | 2.8 | 1.8 | − 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 6.3 |
Q3 2010 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 5.8 |
Q4 2010 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.7 | − 0.6 | 6.8 |
Q1 2011 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
Q2 2011 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6.5 |
Q3 2011 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 6.5 |
Q4 2011 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | − 0.1 | 6.5 |
Japan | ||||||
Q3 2008 | − 0.4 | − 0.4 | − 0.1 | 0.4 | − 0.8 | − 1.4 |
Q4 2008 | − 1.0 | − 1.1 | − 0.1 | − 2.2 | 0.6 | − 4.1 |
Q1 2009 | − 5. | − 2.6 | − 0.1 | − 4.0 | − 0.7 | − 9.3 |
Q2 2009 | − 4.9 | − 2.4 | 0.7 | − 2.7 | − 1.6 | − 6.6 |
Q3 2009 | − 4.5 | − 2.7 | 0.9 | − 2.2 | − 1.2 | − 5.6 |
Q4 2009 | − 3.3 | − 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | − 2.5 | − 0.5 |
Q1 2010 | 0.4 | − 1.0 | 0.9 | 3.5 | − 0.2 | 4.8 |
Q2 2010 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 4.4 |
Q3 2010 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5.5 |
Q4 2010 | 2.7 | 0.1 | − 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
Q1 2011 | 0.2 | − 0.1 | − 0.3 | − 0.1 | 0.0 | − 0.3 |
Q2 2011 | − 0.8 | − 0.1 | 0.5 | − 1.3 | − 0.5 | − 1.7 |
Q3 2011 | − 0.3 | − 0.1 | 0.4 | − 0.5 | − 0.4 | − 0.4 |
Q4 2011 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | − 1.0 | − 0.8 | − 0.6 |
Republic of Korea | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3.1 |
Q4 2008 | − 1.9 | − 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | − 1.2 | − 3.4 |
Q1 2009 | − 2.5 | − 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.4 | − 3.6 | − 4.0 |
Q2 2009 | − 0.6 | − 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.8 | − 5.1 | − 2.0 |
Q3 2009 | 0.2 | − 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.9 | − 3.6 | 1.2 |
Q4 2009 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 6.3 |
Q1 2010 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | − 1.1 | 1.3 | 8.6 |
Q2 2010 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.4 |
Q3 2010 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | − 0.3 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
Q4 2010 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 5.0 |
Q1 2011 | 1.5 | − 0.7 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 4.0 |
Q2 2011 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.5 |
Q3 2011 | 1.0 | − 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 |
Q4 2011 | 0.6 | − 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
Malaysia | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | − 2.7 | 1.7 | 4.8 |
Q4 2008 | 2.7 | − 2.3 | 2.1 | − 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
Q1 2009 | − 0.4 | − 2.6 | 0.3 | 4.9 | − 8.4 | − 6.2 |
Q2 2009 | 0.1 | − 2.4 | 0.3 | − 1.7 | − 0.1 | − 3.9 |
Q3 2009 | 0.7 | − 1.7 | 1.3 | − 2.1 | 0.6 | − 1.2 |
Q4 2009 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.6 |
Q1 2010 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | − 3.2 | 8.4 | 10.1 |
Q2 2010 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | − 5.8 | 6.8 | 9.0 |
Q3 2010 | 3.6 | 2.2 | − 1.4 | − 3.4 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
Q4 2010 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | − 1.7 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
Q1 2011 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | − 6.5 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
Q2 2011 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | − 1.9 | 4.3 |
Q3 2011 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | − 3.5 | 5.8 |
Q4 2011 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 4.1 | − 1.8 | − 2.7 | 5.2 |
Philippines | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | − 1.4 | 0.4 | 4.6 |
Q4 2008 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | − 6.8 | − 2.3 | 2.9 |
Q1 2009 | 1.3 | − 1.7 | 0.6 | 2.6 | − 0.8 | 1.0 |
Q2 2009 | 2.8 | − 0.8 | 1.2 | − 2.2 | − 0.4 | 1.6 |
Q3 2009 | 0.4 | − 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | − 1.9 | 0.5 |
Q4 2009 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | − 0.8 | − 2.0 | 1.4 |
Q1 2010 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | − 1.8 | 1.1 | 8.4 |
Q2 2010 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 8.9 |
Q3 2010 | 1.7 | 2.9 | − 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 7.3 |
Q4 2010 | 3.6 | 3.0 | − 0.6 | − 3.1 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
Q1 2011 | 3.7 | 2.7 | − 2.0 | − 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
Q2 2011 | 3.7 | − 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.1 |
Q3 2011 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | − 7.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
Q4 2011 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | − 0.6 | − 2.2 | 3.7 |
Thailand | ||||||
Q3 2008 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | − 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
Q4 2008 | 1.1 | − 1.1 | 1.0 | − 7.5 | 2.4 | − 4.2 |
Q1 2009 | − 1.3 | − 3.6 | 0.5 | 4.9 | − 7.6 | − 7.0 |
Q2 2009 | − 1.2 | − 2.2 | 0.7 | − 1.2 | − 1.3 | − 5.2 |
Q3 2009 | − 0.7 | − 1.3 | 0.9 | 3.1 | − 4.9 | − 2.8 |
Q4 2009 | 0.8 | − 1.0 | 0.6 | 6.8 | − 1.6 | 5.9 |
Q1 2010 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | − 2.8 | 9.0 | 12.0 |
Q2 2010 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 9.2 |
Q3 2010 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | − 2.6 | 4.8 | 6.6 |
Q4 2010 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | − 0.7 | 3.8 |
Q1 2011 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.5 | − 3.0 | 3.2 |
Q2 2011 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.7 |
Q3 2011 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 3.7 |
Q4 2011 | − 1.6 | − 0.7 | − 0.3 | − 6.1 | − 0.1 | − 9.0 |
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Park, Y. (2015). Crisis Impact. In: Kawai, M., Lee, JW. (eds) Rebalancing for Sustainable Growth. Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55321-2_2
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