Abstract
Analysis of the climatic frequency of atmospheric drought in North Eurasia is presented. Its mean geographic distribution, changes during global warming, and specific features during a 2010 heat wave are given. Various indices of drought conditions are compared and discussed. The 2010 event was extreme, although other indices place it among other twentieth-century events. A satellite-based index of drought conditions is proposed, based on remotely sensed albedo, surface temperature, and NDVI. This permits analysis of detailed spatiotemporal structure of the 2010 drought dynamics. Large-scale atmospheric mechanisms of drought evolution in North Eurasia are explored. Detailed statistical analysis demonstrates that since the mid 1980s, the frequency of positive temperature anomalies during summer in that region has increased, and the major cause is a decrease of the West Pacific circulation index, reflecting a weakening of zonal atmospheric flows over the subcontinent. There was a statistical relationship in May and April with July air temperature on the East European Plain each year, allowing prediction of regional droughts in certain cases.
Andrey B. Shmakin has been deceased.
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Acknowledgement
The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant No. 13-05-41058.
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Popova, V., Zolotokrylin, A., Cherenkova, E., Titkova, T. (2015). Droughts in North Eurasia and Climate Warming: Regional Changes and Consequences. In: Haruyama, S., Shiraiwa, T. (eds) Environmental Change and the Social Response in the Amur River Basin. International Perspectives in Geography, vol 5. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55245-1_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55245-1_6
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