Long-Run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding on Markets and Production Networks: Geographical Simulation Analysis

  • Ikumo Isono
  • Satoru Kumagai
Part of the Risk, Governance and Society book series (RISKGOSO, volume 18)


We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on affected countries by examining the case of flooding in Thailand in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM modeling and utilizing short-run forecasts for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will likely be moderate as many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand.


Transport Cost Baseline Scenario Production Network Great East Japan Earthquake Flood Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Ando, M. (2014). Impacts of recent crises and disasters on regional production/distribution networks and trade in Japan. Chapter 9 in this report.Google Scholar
  2. ASEAN. (2010). Master plan on ASEAN connectivity: One vision, one identity, one community. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat.Google Scholar
  3. ERIA. (2010). The comprehensive Asia development plan, ERIA Research Project Report 2009 No. 7–1. Jakarta: ERIA.Google Scholar
  4. Head, K., & Mayer, T. (2000). Non-Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in Europe. Weltwirschaftliches Archiv, 136, 285–314.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Hummels, D. (1999). Toward a geography of trade costs, GTAP Working Paper No. 17.Google Scholar
  6. Intarakumnerd, P. (Ed.) (2010). Fostering production and science & technology linkages to stimulate innovation in ASEAN, ERIA Research Project Report 2009 No. 7–4. Jakarta: ERIA.Google Scholar
  7. Isono, I., & Kimura, F. (2011). Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan earthquake: Geographical simulation analysis, ERIA Policy Brief 2011–03. Jakarta: ERIA.Google Scholar
  8. JETRO. (2008). ASEAN logistics network map. Tokyo: JETRO.Google Scholar
  9. JETRO. (2009). ASEAN logistics network map (2nd ed.). Tokyo: JETRO.Google Scholar
  10. Kumagai, S., Gokan, T., Isono, I., Hayakawa, K., Tsubota, K., & Keola, S. (forthcoming, 2014), “IDE/ERIA-GSM v4.0” in geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in ASEAN, China and India. In R. Banomyong , I. Isono, & S. Kumagai (Eds.), ERIA Research Project Report 2011.Google Scholar
  11. Kumasaka, Y. (Ed.) (forthcoming, 2014). CQM construction and forecasts for the economies of Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, ERIA Research Project Report 2011. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Developing EconomiesChibaJapan
  2. 2.Economic Integration Studies GroupInter-disciplinary Studies Center, IDE-JETROKuala LumpurMalaysia

Personalised recommendations