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Long-Run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding on Markets and Production Networks: Geographical Simulation Analysis

  • Ikumo Isono
  • Satoru Kumagai
Chapter
Part of the Risk, Governance and Society book series (RISKGOSO, volume 18)

Abstract

We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on affected countries by examining the case of flooding in Thailand in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM modeling and utilizing short-run forecasts for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will likely be moderate as many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand.

Keywords

Transport Cost Baseline Scenario Production Network Great East Japan Earthquake Flood Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Developing EconomiesChibaJapan
  2. 2.Economic Integration Studies GroupInter-disciplinary Studies Center, IDE-JETROKuala LumpurMalaysia

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