Advertisement

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Population and Technological Progress

  • Hisakazu Kato
Chapter
Part of the SpringerBriefs in Population Studies book series (BRIEFSPOPULAT)

Abstract

This chapter confirms the relationship between population growth and technological progress using theoretical and empirical studies. First, we look at some theories of technological progress in terms of population scale and growth. Many economists have asserted that a larger population induces more innovation, new technology, ideas, and so on. This view implies that the growth rate of technological progress declines as population decreases in Japan or other developed countries in the near future. Second, we devise a simple model to analyze the effect of population scale on technological progress. This model forms the basis of the empirical study discussed below. As for the implications of this model, the effect of population scale on technological progress is theoretically ambiguous. Since the conclusions depend on the assumption of the model, only an empirical study can confirm the implications of the model. In addition, according to the traditional Keynesian perspective, population numbers are an important factor in economic performance. In this view, a reduced population size leads to a decline in economic growth. This lower economic growth introduces the possibility of reduced investments in technology. Lastly, we test whether there is a positive relationship between population and technological progress using OECD panel data from 1985 to 2012 for 20 countries. We use the pooled regression and the random-effect models. From these empirical results, we derive a positive relationship between population growth and MFP using panel data analysis, thus supporting our assumption that the relationship between population growth and technological progress is positive.

Keywords

Labor Force Technological Progress Total Fertility Rate Generalize Little Square Population Scale 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Collins, J., Baer, B., & Weber, E. J. (2013). Population, technological progress and the evolution of innovative potential. Discussion Paper, 13.21, The University of Western Australia.Google Scholar
  2. Jones, C. I. (1995). R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 103, 759–784.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Jones, C. I. (2005). Growth and ideas. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol. 1B). Elsevier B.V.Google Scholar
  4. Kremer, M. (1993). Population growth and technological change: One million B.C. to 1990, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681–716.Google Scholar
  5. Kuznetz, S. (1960). Population change and aggregate output, In Demographic and economic change in developed countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  6. Ministry of Labour (Ed.) (2000). White paper on the labour 2000. (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  7. Oguro, K., & Morisita, M. (2008). In Kaizuka, K. and Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance (Eds.), Can we escape the trap of population decline? Chuo-Keizai-Sha: Studies of Social Security Improvements in Population Declining Society. (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  8. The Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (Ed.) (2003). Annual report on the Japanese economy and public finance 2003. (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  9. The Economic Planning Agency (Ed.) (1995). Annual report on the Japanese economy 1995. (in Japanese).Google Scholar
  10. Yashiro, N. (1999). Economics of low fertility and aging. Toyo Keizai Shinpo-Sha. (in Japanese).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Political Science and EconomicsMeiji UniversityChiyoda-kuJapan

Personalised recommendations