Abstract
Although there were some interruptions at wartimes, the growth of Japanese population reached its peak in 2008, and then began to decrease. There are two basic factors: first, rising longevity up to 90 years; second, a below replacement fertility. Both factors affect the age structure. The share of young population (aged under 15 years) has fallen from 35.4 % (1950) to 13.1 % (2010) and it continues to shrink to 9.1 % by 2060. In contrast, the share of aged population (aged 65 years or older) has risen from 4.9 % (1950) to 23.0 % (2010) and will increase further to 39.9 % (2060).The demographic care cost (dependency ratio) begins to rise continuously since 1990 and is predicted to increase from 0.57, 2010 to 0.96 by 2060. The effect of rising longevity indicates only a gradual trend. It begins to rise smoothly from 0.58 in 1975 to 0.71 in 2010 and is expected to reach 0.79 by 2060. Comparatively, the additional effect of below replacement fertility starts to go beyond the former from 1980s and is expected to increase from 0.83 in 2010 to 0.94 by 2060. The situations in local communities are more critical because of outmigration among young population.
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Notes
- 1.
Source: from 1872 to 2005, Statistics Bureau (2006, pp. 88–90), from 2010 to 2110 (NIPSSR 2012a). According to the Population Estimates of Japan, Inter-census Adjustment of Current Population Estimates (as of October 1 of each year) by Statistics Bureau of Japan, the peak population was 128.084 million in 2008 (NIPSSR 2012b).
- 2.
In auxiliary projection for 2110, the value of fertility and the life expectancy were fixed at TFR = 1.35 and average span of life was 84.19 years for men and 90.93 years for women in 2060. The period TFR of Japan showed a recovery from 1.26 in 2005 and to 1.39 in 2010 (NIPSSR 2013; see also and see also http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/e/shicyoson13/t-page.asp). However, there is no substantial increase in the cohort TFR to the replacement level at present.
- 3.
- 4.
Kaufmann (2005, p. 209) used the different age categories, namely, the population aged 0–19 as pre-working generation, the population aged 20–60 as working generation, the population aged 60 and over as post working generation. He considered the life stages of modern German society to get into job and to be retired. For the convenience to use the historical data and the population projection, this chapter used the same age categories as Kaufmann did with those of the usual dependency ratio. Certainly, the exact value of care cost depends on age categories (especially on practical earning period) and relative living cost to the one of working generation. Furthermore, the basic care relation between the generations is proportional to the demographic age structure.
- 5.
- 6.
Population with a constant birth rate (fertility) and death rate (life table), along with no migration would reach stable population in long term. In this state the percentage of people in every age group remains constant and the population pyramid would remain unchanged. Therefore, the dependency ratio would also be stable. However, a stable population could expand or shrink. In the case of this chapter, fertility is assumed to be at replacement level. Therefore, the age structure of stable population of the life table in a given year would be unchanged in size. In other word, it is called “stationary population.”
- 7.
To calculate the demographic care cost, the sum total of stable population is being added to both male’s and female’s life tables to keep the consistency with the usual dependency ratio. On the other hand, the net reproduction rate (NRR) indicates the average number of daughters that would be born to a female. Thus, there is some inconsistency in the calculation of the optimal value (by using the NRR < 1or NRR > 1).
- 8.
According to the original model (Kaufmann 2005), the average interval of the generations is assumed as 30 years for reproduction. That means this minimum cost should be taken by the next generation within 30 years.
- 9.
- 10.
The value remain unchanged until 2110 because the auxiliary projection made an assumption that there is a constant life expectancy (84.13 years for males and 90.87 years for females in 2060).
- 11.
Momentum can be caused by the differences in absolute size among the age cohorts through historical events.
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Hara, T. (2015). Population Prospects in Japanese Society. In: A Shrinking Society. SpringerBriefs in Population Studies(). Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54810-2_2
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