Abstract
This chapter aims to estimate the extent of damage in the case of an outbreak of smallpox terrorism, based on agent-based modeling. The purpose of this study is also to discuss effects of social protection policies, such as vaccination and quarantine. The authors developed a smallpox epidemic terrorism simulation using SOARS. The simulation assumes exposure of smallpox virus in a city with a population of 10,000. The results of the simulation show (1) The implementation of early school closure and vaccination significantly reduces the number of infected persons despite the limited amount of vaccine supply; (2) vaccination is a method to acquire immunity for younger (non-immune) generations; thus, the difference in vaccination strategy influences the trend of outbreak among patients; (3) if the school closure and vaccination are delayed more than 20 days, the effect of suppressing the spread of infection falls.
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Ishinishi, M., Ichikawa, M., Tanuma, H., Deguchi, H., Kanatani, Y. (2013). The Effects of Vaccination Strategies Against Smallpox Bioterrorism with Agent-Based Simulation. In: Murata, T., Terano, T., Takahashi, S. (eds) Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems VII. Agent-Based Social Systems, vol 10. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54279-7_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54279-7_10
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