Application of AIM/Local Model to India using Area and Large Point Sources

  • Manmohan Kapshe
  • Amit Garg
  • Priyadarshi R. Shukla


India’s emissions inventory estimates indicate that Large Point Sources (LPS) contribute above 60% of CO2 and SO2 emissions. Uneven distribution of energy resources, unbalanced regional development and the present high economic growth has led to emission patterns with dispersed hotspots. The policy making to address the environmental concerns thus rests on the assessment of future emissions and the options to mitigate them. The paper shows, using AIM/Local model with GIS interface, that Indian CO2 emissions shall continue to rise steadily till 2030, whereas the SO2 emissions shall decline after 2020, creating a natural decoupling of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and local emissions. The carbon mitigation analysis, under three global policy regimes, indicates substitution of coal by gas, besides pushing energy efficient and low carbon technologies. Under all the scenarios, LPS contribute a major share of emissions, with industrial centers and large cities growing into major hotspots of emissions. Paper suggests that these spots would be the major focus of future emissions mitigation policy analysis for applications of formal tools like the AIM/Local model.


Area Source Transport Sector Reference Scenario Power Sector Carbon Mitigation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. AIM Project Team (2002) AIM-Local: a user’s guide. AIM interim paper, IP-02-01. National Institute for Environmental Studies, TsukubaGoogle Scholar
  2. Biswas D (ed) (1999) Parivesh news letter: June 1999. Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  3. CEA (Central Electricity Authority of India) (1996) Performance review of thermal power stations 1995-96. New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  4. CMIE (1999) India’s energy sector. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, MumbaiGoogle Scholar
  5. CMIE (2002a) India’s Energy Sector. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, MumbaiGoogle Scholar
  6. CMIE (2002b) Prowess: the Indian corporate database. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, MumbaiGoogle Scholar
  7. Garg A (2000) Technologies, policies and measures for energy and environment future. Doctoral thesis, Indian Institute of Management, AhmedabadGoogle Scholar
  8. Garg A, Shukla PR, Bhattacharya S, Dadhwal VK (2001a) Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility. Atmospheric Environment 35: 703–713CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Garg A, Bhattacharya S, Shukla PR, Dadhwal VK (2001b) Regional and sectoral assessment of greenhouse gas emissions in India. Atmospheric Environment 35: 2679–2695CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Garg A, Ghosh D, Shukla PR (2001c) Integrated energy and environment modelling and analysis for India. OPSEARCH of India 38Google Scholar
  11. Garg A, Kapshe M, Shukla PR, Ghosh D (2002) Large point source (LPS) emissions from India: regional and sectoral analysis. Atmospheric Environment 36: 213–224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Garg A, Shukla PR (2002) Emissions inventory of India. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  13. Hu X, Yang H (2000) Disaggregate SO2 emissions from national total to county level distributions for China. 5th AIM international workshop, National Institute of Environmental Studies, TsukubaGoogle Scholar
  14. IPCC (1996) Revised IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories: reference manual, vol 3. Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change, BracknellGoogle Scholar
  15. IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  16. Kainuma M, Matsuoka Y, Morita T, Hibino G (1999) Development of an end-use model for analyzing policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. IEEE trans on systems, man, and cybernetics-part C: Applications and reviews 29-3: 317–324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kainuma M, Matsuoka Y, Morita T (2001) CO2 emission forecast in Japan by AIM/end-use model. OPSEARCH of India 38-1: 110–125Google Scholar
  18. Kuznets SS (1958) Six lectures on economic growth. Free Press New York, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  19. Li YF, Zhang YJ, Cao GL, Liu JH, Barrie LA (1999) Distribution of seasonal SO2 emission from fuel combustion and industrial activities in Shanxi province, China, with l/6° xl/4° longitude/latitude resolution. Atmospheric Environment 33: 257–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Masheikar RA, Biswas DK, Krishnan NR, Mathur OP, Natarajan R, Niyati KP, Shukla PR, Singh DV, Singhal S (2002) Report of the expert committee on auto fuel policy. Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, New DelhiGoogle Scholar
  21. Shukla PR, Ghosh D, Chandler W, Logan J (1999) Developing countries and global climate change: electric power option in India. PEW Center on Global Climate Change, ArlingtonGoogle Scholar
  22. UN (United Nations) (1998) World population projections to 2150. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  23. WB (World Bank) (1997) A planner’s guide for selecting clean coal technologies for power plants. World Bank Technical Paper No 387, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Manmohan Kapshe
    • 1
  • Amit Garg
    • 2
  • Priyadarshi R. Shukla
    • 1
  1. 1.Indian Institute of ManagementAhmedabadIndia
  2. 2.Winrock International IndiaNew DelhiIndia

Personalised recommendations