Application of AIM/Local Model to India using Area and Large Point Sources

  • Manmohan Kapshe
  • Amit Garg
  • Priyadarshi R. Shukla


India’s emissions inventory estimates indicate that Large Point Sources (LPS) contribute above 60% of CO2 and SO2 emissions. Uneven distribution of energy resources, unbalanced regional development and the present high economic growth has led to emission patterns with dispersed hotspots. The policy making to address the environmental concerns thus rests on the assessment of future emissions and the options to mitigate them. The paper shows, using AIM/Local model with GIS interface, that Indian CO2 emissions shall continue to rise steadily till 2030, whereas the SO2 emissions shall decline after 2020, creating a natural decoupling of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and local emissions. The carbon mitigation analysis, under three global policy regimes, indicates substitution of coal by gas, besides pushing energy efficient and low carbon technologies. Under all the scenarios, LPS contribute a major share of emissions, with industrial centers and large cities growing into major hotspots of emissions. Paper suggests that these spots would be the major focus of future emissions mitigation policy analysis for applications of formal tools like the AIM/Local model.


Area Source Transport Sector Reference Scenario Power Sector Carbon Mitigation 


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Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Manmohan Kapshe
    • 1
  • Amit Garg
    • 2
  • Priyadarshi R. Shukla
    • 1
  1. 1.Indian Institute of ManagementAhmedabadIndia
  2. 2.Winrock International IndiaNew DelhiIndia

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