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Cost Analysis of Mitigation Policies

  • Mikiko Kainuma
  • Yuzuru Matsuoka
  • Tsuneyuki Morita
  • Toshihiko Masui
  • Kiyoshi Takahashi

Abstract

This analysis evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of climate change policies. Firstly, the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol are analyzed to assess the short-term effects of climate change policies. It is found that the GDP loss to Japan, the USA, the EU, and Russia will be 0.42%, 0.56%, 0.44%, and 0.25%, respectively, if the Annex ? countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol and reduce their emissions without emissions trading and without taking carbon sinks into account. On the other hand, the GDP loss to Japan and the EU will grow if the USA does not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, and these losses will be recovered if the Kyoto mechanisms are adopted. Atmospheric stabilization scenarios are then examined to estimate long-term economic and environmental impacts. It is found that the global mean temperature will increase 1.8-2.8° C by the year 2100 under 550 ppmv scenarios. Impacts on crop productivity in India and the incidence of malaria in China are estimated to become very serious.

Keywords

European Union Clean Development Mechanism Kyoto Protocol Emission Trading Carbon Price 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

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Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mikiko Kainuma
    • 1
  • Yuzuru Matsuoka
    • 2
  • Tsuneyuki Morita
    • 1
  • Toshihiko Masui
    • 1
  • Kiyoshi Takahashi
    • 1
  1. 1.National Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukubaJapan
  2. 2.Kyoto UniversityKyotoJapan

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