Economic impacts - Statistical analysis


Section 2.3 already presented an introduction to the overall social and environmental consequences of natural disasters. It was noted there, that the economic effects need a more thorough analysis due to the complexity of the topic and the importance for the risk management and modeling approach. Here, a number of issues and open questions about macroeconomic consequences due to natural disasters in the short and in the long term (until 4 years after the disaster) are statistically investigated using a sample of disaster events between 1960 and 2000. The chapter starts by grouping economic effects into three categories: Direct, indirect and macroeconomic effects1 (ECLAC 2003: (1)9ff, Charvériat 2000: 13ff, Rose 2004: 16f, Mechler 2004a: 31ff).


Natural Disaster Government Consumption Average Growth Rate Disaster Event Macroeconomic Variable 
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  1. 1.
    Macroeconomic effects are also called secondary effects (Benson and Clay 2000: 12, Murlidharan and Shah 2003: 21f)Google Scholar
  2. 3.
    The notation and methodology used for the growth rate analysis is similar to that of Albala-Bertrand (1993a). Also because the results should either support its findings or not.Google Scholar
  3. 5.
    Because there is the possibility that the results of some decades are not indicative for another decade (see for example Charvériat 2000: 20) this variable is also introduced for separated analysis.Google Scholar

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© Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

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