Simulation, according to this chapter’s main result, will never improve the predictive performance neither of economics nor of climatology by compensating the lack of experiments. It is argued that there are principally two approaches to simulation: a conservative and a constructive one, and that both approaches cannot successfully be applied to the sciences this inquiry deals with. Last but not least, the methodological framework is used to unmask the absurdity of the ensemble-prediction method in climatology.
KeywordsSimulated System Predictive Performance Conservative Approach Constructive Approach Nuclear Weapon
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