Sensitive dependence on initial conditions

Abstract

Sensitive dependence on initial conditions can explain forecast failure. This chapter develops a “routes to chaos”-approach which shows that all empirically adequate models of the economy as well as the climate exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions. As a first step, that approach identifies certain minimal models, namely the coupled oscillator and the cellular automata, which sensitively depend on initial conditions. Next, they are shown to model some characteristic features of both the economy as well as the climate under their every-day description. As the minimal models sensitively depend on initial conditions, so does any adequate model of the economy and our climate system, too.