Forecast performance in natural sciences


This chapter evaluates the predictive performance of thermodynamics in distinguishing between experimental and non-experimental contexts. Two historic case studies, namely on the latent heat of fusion and the ideal gas law, warrant the conclusion that experimental thermodynamics is characterized by predictive progress in depth as well as in scope. The non-experimental case is explored by examining attempts to predict the climate. Climatology’s predictive performance is found to be poor.


Latent Heat Natural Science Predictive Performance Forecast Performance Predictive Success 
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© Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

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