A historical perspective on economic forecast performance


This chapter assesses the performance of macroeconomic forecasts from a historical point of view. After briefly outlining the history of economic forecasting, it reviews and discusses empirical studies that consider whether economic forecast performance has been improved over time. In the light of these empirical studies, the answer to that question is negative. Likewise, there seems to be no predictive progress as to the different forecasting methods, either. The last section summarizes this chapter’s main observations.


Business Cycle Forecast Error Predictive Performance Econometric Model Forecast Method 


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© Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

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