Recent performance of economic forecasts


This chapter assesses the current performance of macroeconomic forecasts. It reviews the findings of empirical forecast evaluations and discusses them thoroughly while distinguishing absolute and relative performance, the performance of specific methods and that of different forecasting institutions. All things considered, the evaluation diagnoses a comprehensive failure of macroeconomic forecasts. The last section summarizes the main conclusions that can be drawn from the discussed studies.


Forecast Error Forecast Performance Forecast Method Forecast Horizon Economic Forecast 
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© Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

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