Unrealistic-assumption explanations


Macroeconomic and climate forecasts are largely based on unrealistic assumptions. This fact as such, however, does not explain forecast failure as the counterexamples of Larry Laudan’s pessimistic meta-induction show. Once this is established, this chapter develops a more sophisticated explanation of forecast failure involving unrealistic assumptions by a critical discussion of the molecular kinetic deduction of the ideal gas law and its improvement. But, finally, this type of explanation cannot be applied in economics.


Forecast Error Scientific Realism Unrealistic Assumption Rational Expectation Hypothesis Good Scientific Theory 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Copyright information

© Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden 2006

Personalised recommendations