Abstract
Macroeconomic and climate forecasts are largely based on unrealistic assumptions. This fact as such, however, does not explain forecast failure as the counterexamples of Larry Laudan’s pessimistic meta-induction show. Once this is established, this chapter develops a more sophisticated explanation of forecast failure involving unrealistic assumptions by a critical discussion of the molecular kinetic deduction of the ideal gas law and its improvement. But, finally, this type of explanation cannot be applied in economics.
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© 2006 Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden
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(2006). Unrealistic-assumption explanations. In: Prediction or Prophecy?. DUV. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9053-8_10
Publisher Name: DUV
Print ISBN: 978-3-8350-0223-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-8350-9053-8
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