Abstract
According to the research questions presented above, the analysis focuses on how the individual manager anticipates future risks and chances for the organization. The manager uses the process of early warning. Therefore, the early warning behavior of the individual manager is analyzed. Within this process data and information have to be distinguished. Managers are confronted with general data about the organizational environment. Then, this “[d]ata is given meaning”43 and transformed by interpretation to information relevant for the organization. In order to answer the research questions about the early warning behavior of the individual, first, German literature about early warning is presented and analyzed whether it is suitable for this purpose.
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References
Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286.
German literature is used here as a synonym for literature written in German. For example literature by Swiss researchers of the University of St. Gallen on the method of networked thinking is included. See Steinle, Eggers and Ahlers (1995).
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1990), p. 338.
These terms are for example used by Hahn and Krystek (1979), Klausmann (1983) and Liebl (1996).
See Zimmermann (1992), p. 79.
See Liebl (1991), p. 4.
See Klausmann (1983), p. 41ff., Liebl (1991), p. 7 and Eisenschink (1996), p. 22ff. for the problem of differentiating these notions.
See Zimmermann (1992), p. 79. In this context Gomez does not speak about a fourth generation but about early warning taking a holistic view. See Gomez (1983), p. 22.
Weigand and Buchner (2000), p. 9. This definition shows the close relationship of the four notions. The definition of ‘Früherkennung’ also fulfils the criteria of ‘Frühaufklärung’.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 10. They also use the terms of operational and strategic early warning systems. See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 11.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 10. Considering these points of reference both systems are further differentiated by input, throughput, output and outcome measures. See Krystek/Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 12.
See Krystek/ Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 22f.
In this context Klausmann postulates that operational early warning should aim at expanding its focus by detecting chances for the organization. See Klausmann (1983), p. 39f.
For an overview about causes of crises see Hauschildt (1998), p. 5ff.
For a description of the process of operational early warning see Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 11ff.
For an introduction to business ratios see Küting and Weber (1999), p. 23ff and Weber (2004), p. 239ff.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1990), p. 338 and Hahn (1983), p. 7.
See Weber (1995), p. 204.
See Kühn (1980), p. 497 and Gomez (1983), p. 14.
See Krystek (1990), p. 69.
See Küting and Weber (1999), p. 27ff. Examples of ratio systems are the system by DuPont, the ZVEI ratio system or the return on investment/cash-flow ratio system. For an overview see Reichmann (1990), p. 18ff.
See Krystek (1990), p. 70.
See Liebl (1991), 4f. and Gomez (1983), p. 15f.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 59. For a general critique of business ratios see Küting and Weber (1999), p. 48ff.
See Krystek (1990), p. 70. Schäffer considers the comparison of extrapolated values with planned ones also as a comparison of planed values with real ones. See Schäffer (2001), p. 13. See also Weber (2004), p. 225ff.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 76.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1990), p. 340 and Ansoff, Kirsch and Roventa (1983), p. 244. They use qualitative data and soft facts synonymously.
See Gomez (1983), p. 16.
See Krystek (1990), p. 69, Zimmermann (1992), p. 74 and Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 79. For a general introduction see also Hahn and Krystek (1979), p. 76ff. and Rieser (1978), p. 51ff. For an early warning system based on indicators see Hahn (1983), p. 9.
See Hahn and Klausmann (1979), p. 67.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 60. In this context it is possible to differentiate between fully identical indicators, partially different indicators and non-partially identical indicators.
See Liebl (1991), p. 5.
See Kühn (1980), p. 498.
See Gomez (1983), p. 16.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 160.
See Ansoff (1975), p. 23. His concept will be explained in B 2.2.
See Liebl (1996), p. 7 and Reinhardt (1984), p. 26ff.
See Welge and Al-Laham (2001), p. 301.
See Aguilar (1967), p. 19ff. for the typical terminology in English literature.
See Battelle-Institut (1978) and Battelle-Institut (1979).
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 168ff., p. 216ff. and Müller-Stewens and Lechner (2001), p. 152ff and p. 168f.
This is the way strategic early warning is for example conducted at Daimler Benz Aerospace. See Tessun (1997). This procedure is in accordance with Ansoff’s advices. See Ansoff (1975), p. 24f.
See Krampe and Müller (1981).
See Kirsch and Trux (1979) and Kirsch and Trux (1986).
See Kirsch and Trux (1979), p. 53 and Ansoff (1975), p. 22f.
See Kirsch and Trux (1981), p. xix ff. and Hahn (1983), p. 13.
See Hahn (1983), p. 13.
See Zimmermann (1992), p. 78 and Gomez (1983), p. 19. For an explanation of the historical development of this approach see Eggenberger (1992), p. 43.
See Steinle, Eggers and Ahlers (1995), p. 16f.
See Probst and Gomez (1991), p. 8 for a procedural presentation of problem solving within the context of networked thinking. For a critique of this approach see Müller (1987), p. 139, Eschenbach and Kunesch (1996), p. 266, Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 227 and Liebl (1997), p. 43.
See Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 255.
Zettelmeyer (1984), p. 20. The notion’ strategic management’ was decisively determined by Ansoff. See Ansoff (1972). For further information about the nature of strategic management see also Müller-Stewens and Lechner (2001), p. 17ff.
Own compilation, based on Krystek and Müller-Stewens (1993), p. 10ff.
See Aguilar (1967).
Ibid., p. 1 (format of source not adopted). Aguilar does not differentiate between data and information because according to him scanning means receiving data about the environment and interpretation at the same time. Therefore, in his terminology the result of scanning is information.
Ibid., p. 1 (format of source not adopted). See also Culnan (1983), p. 194 and Hambrick (1982), p. 159.
See Kiesler and Sproull (1982), p. 555 and Lenz and Engledow (1986), p. 69.
El Sawy (1985), p. 53. See also Kiesler and Sproull (1982), p. 555.
See Aguilar (1967), p. 19ff.
Ibid., p. 4.
See Ibid., p. 19ff.
See Hahn (1983), p. 3.
Ansoff (1975), p. 22. See also Ansoff (1981), p. 234.
See Ansoff (1975), p. 22.
Ansoff (1976), p. 131.
Ibid., p. 131.
In this context Ansoff also considers a “decisiveness gap”. Ansoff (1981), p. 235. This problem occurs when organizations detect a discontinuity well in advance but are not able to react to it. It is the gap between information within the organization and prepared plans on the one hand and implementation of action on the other hand. See Ansoff (1981), p. 235.
Ansoff (1984), p. 483.
See Ansoff (1975), p. 24 and Ansoff (1976), p. 133.
See Ansoff (1975), p. 24 and Ansoff (1976), p.135.
See Ansoff (1975), p. 27, Ansoff (1976), p. 141 and Ansoff (1981), p. 250.
See Ansoff (1979), p. 47ff.
See Ansoff (1981), p. 250.
See Ansoff (1976), p. 142 and Ansoff (1981), p. 250.
See Simon (1986), p. 21ff., Konrad (1991), p. 56ff., Coenenberg and Baum (1987), p. 167, Weigand and Buchner (2000), p. 17f., Muchna (1988), p. 534ff. and Arnold (1981), p. 291.
Other terms in this field of literature are strategic issue management and strategic sensemaking. See Ericson (2001), p. 110f.
Johnson (1983), p. 22.
See Cheney and Vibbert (1987), p. 166ff.
See Wartick and Rude (1986), p. 125.
Ansoff (1980), p. 133. For a definition of issues see also Dutton, Fahey and Narayanam (1983), p. 308 and Liebl (1996), p. 8 and the there cited sources.
See Downs (1972), p. 38f.
See Dutton, Ashford, Lawrence and Miner-Rubino (2002) for an example of conditions favouring the expansion of an issue.
See Starling (1979), p. 141.
See Lancaster and Loescher (1994), p. 162.
See Picot (1977), p. 46ff.
See Coates, Coates, Jarratt and Heinz (1986), p. 21 and Starling (1979), p. 214f.
See Renfro and Morrison (1982), p. 55.
See Liebl (1996), p. 9.
See Maitlis (2005), p. 21.
See Axelrod (1976), p. 23ff.
Dutton, Fahey and Narayanam (1983), p. 313.
Ibid., p. 315.
See Weick, Sutcliffe and Obstfeld (2005).
Dutton, Fahey and Narayanam (1983), p. 307f.
Aguilar (1967), p. 1 (format of source not adopted).
See Wilson (1983), p. 12.
See Ansoff (1980), p. 140.
See Weick (1993), p. 636.
See Isabella (1990), Sackmann (1991), Sandelands and Stablein (1987), Weick and Roberts (1993) and Starbuck and Milliken (1988).
See Dutton and Jackson (1987), Smiricich and Stubbart (1985), Gioia and Chittipeddi (1991), Gioia and Thomas (1996) and Bartunek, Krim, Necochea and Humphries (1999).
See Westley (1990), Dutton and Ashford (1993) and Dutton, Ashford, O’Neill, Hayes and Wierba (1997).
See Maitlis (2005).
See Griffith (1999) and Thomas, Clark and Gioia (1993).
See Brown (2000), Brown and Jones (2000), Gephart (1992), Gephart (1993), Weick and Roberts (1993) and Weick (1993).
See Sutcliffe (2001), p. 198. This work provides an overview of relevant literature in this area.
See Daft and Weick (1984).
See Milliken (1990).
See Thomas, Clark and Gioia (1993).
See Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286. See also Thomas, Clark and Gioia (1993), p. 240 and Gioia and Chittipeddi (1991), p. 444.
Daft, Sormunen and Parks (1988), p. 124. See also Rhyne (1985), p. 319f., Hofer and Schendel (1978), p. 16ff. and Meyer (1981), p. 520.
Liu (1998), p. 298. See also Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286 and Taylor and Fiske (1978), p. 250ff.
See Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286 and Argyris and Schon (1978), p. 17ff.
Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286.
See Thomas, Clark and Gioia (1993), p. 242. See also Ginsberg (1986), p. 560ff.
Terrebery (1968), p. 590.
Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286.
Liu’s strategic scanning-relating learning cycle is similar to this model. The only difference is the disjuncture of scanning into sensing and perception. See Liu (1998), p. 301.
See Daft and Weick (1984), p. 286.
Milliken (1990), p. 43.
See Daft and Weick (1984), p. 293.
See for example Kim (2001), p. 20 and Huber (1991), p. 102.
These two steps can also be considered as learning about the environment. See Hedberg (1981), p. 5.
See Crossan, Lane and White (1999), p. 522 and Kim (2001), p. 38ff.
See Isabella (1990), p. 8f.
See Kim (1993), p. 37f. and Simon (1991), p. 129ff.
See Huber (1991), p. 100ff., Farace and MacDonald (1974), p. 2ff. and Daft and Weick (1984), p. 285.
See Huber (1991).
See Crossan, Lane and White (1999). For an empirical validation of the model see Crossan and Berdrow (2003).
See Crossan, Lane and White (1999), p. 525.
See Lane and White (1999) Ibid., p. 528.
See Simon (1991), p. 126 and Kim (1993), p. 43ff.
See Weick and Roberts (1993), p. 358f.
Crossan, Lane and White (1999), p. 529.
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(2007). Understanding of Early Warning in Literature and Definition of Important Terms. In: A Contingency-Based View of Chief Executive Officers’ Early Warning Behavior. Gabler. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-5504-9_2
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