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Wahlen und Konjunkturzyklen pp 53–90Cite as

Die Unsicherheit über den Wahlausgang

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In diesem Kapitel wird eine eigene empirische Untersuchung der rationalen Partisantheorie des Konjunkturzyklus präsentiert. Dabei wird insbesondere auf die Kritik an der unzureichenden empirischen Berücksichtigung derWahlüberraschung eingegangen und der Grad der herrschenden Wahlüberraschung mit Hilfe von Wahlumfragedaten modelliert.

Erste Ergebnisse zu diesem Kapitel der Arbeit finden sich in Berlemann und Markwardt (2007).

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© 2008 Gabler | GWV Fachverlage GmbH, Wiesbaden

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(2008). Die Unsicherheit über den Wahlausgang. In: Wahlen und Konjunkturzyklen. Gabler. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-9976-4_3

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