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Key Design Elements of Prediction Markets

  • Stefan Luckner
  • Jan Schröder
  • Christian Slamka
  • Markus Franke
  • Andreas Geyer-Schulz
  • Bernd Skiera
  • Martin Spann
  • Christof Weinhardt

Abstract

Before studying more advanced applications of prediction markets, it is necessary to gain a basic understanding of their key design elements. Like any market, prediction markets have to be designed and implemented very carefully in order to ensure that they are suitable for aggregating traders’ information (Weinhardt et al., 2003, Weinhardt et al., 2006a). The key design elements comprise the specification of contractstraded in a prediction market, the trading mechanism, and the incentivesprovided to ensure information revelation (Spann and Skiera, 2003). Moreover, diversity of information is required in order to provide a basis for trading (Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004). Heterogeneous expectations about the future among traders are desirable and the selection of tradersis thus also considered a key design issue (Tziralis and Tatsiopoulos, 2007b). The following subsections describe these design elements in more detail.

Keywords

Incentive Scheme National Team Prediction Market Trading Behavior Trading Price 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Gabler Verlag | Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefan Luckner
  • Jan Schröder
  • Christian Slamka
  • Markus Franke
  • Andreas Geyer-Schulz
  • Bernd Skiera
  • Martin Spann
  • Christof Weinhardt

There are no affiliations available

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