Migration and Tourism Flows to New Zealand

  • Murat Genç


This paper uses a gravity model to test whether, all else equal, tourism flows to New Zealand from countries with larger stocks of migrants to New Zealand are larger. It uses an unbalanced panel data set consisting of more than 190 countries that New Zealand has traded with between the years 1981 and 2006. A panel negative binomial model is employed to estimate the multiplicative form of the gravity model. The coefficient of the logarithm of the migrant stock variables is found to be statistically significant, implying that a 10 % increases in immigrants from a country leads to a 2.1 % increase in the number of visitors from that country, all else equal.


Real Exchange Rate Gravity Model Trade Flow Negative Binomial Model International Tourism 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Allison PD, Waterman RP (2002) Fixed-effects negative binomial regression models. Sociol Methodol 32:247–265CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Anderson JE (2011) The gravity model. Annu Rev Econ 3:133–160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Anderson JE (1979) A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. Am Econ Rev 69:106–116Google Scholar
  4. Anderson JE, van Wincoop E (2004) Trade costs. J Econ Lit 42:691–751CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. van Bergeijk PAG, Brakman S (2010) The gravity model in international trade. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Bergstrand JH, Egger P (2011) Gravity equations and economic frictions in the world economy. In: Bernhofen D, Falvey R, Greenaway D, Krieckemeier U (eds) Palgrave handbook of international trade. Palgrave-Macmillan Press, BasingstokeGoogle Scholar
  7. Cameron AC, Trivedi PK (2010) Microeconometrics using Stata. Revised edn. Stata Press, College StationGoogle Scholar
  8. Cameron AC, Trivedi PK (2005) Microeconometrics: methods and applications. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Cameron AC, Trivedi PK (1998) Regression analysis of count data. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Chang S-C, Lai F-T (2011) Intra-continental and intercontinental service trade in the travel and tourism industry. Tour Econ 17:963–982CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Crampon LJ (1966) A new technique to analyze tourist markets. J Market 30:27–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Crouch GI (1994a) The study of international tourism demand: a survey of findings. J Travel Res 32:41–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Crouch GI (1994b) The study of international tourism demand: a review of findings. J Travel Res 33:12–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Eryiğit M, Kotil E, Eryiğit R (2010) Factors affecting international tourism flows to Turkey: a gravity model approach. Tour Econ 16:585–595CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Disdier A-C, Head K (2008) The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade. Rev Econ Stat 90:37–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Durbarry R (2008) Tourism taxes: implications for tourism demand in the UK. Rev Devel Econ 12:21–36CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Dwyer L, Burnley I, Forsyt P, Murphy P (1993) Tourism-immigration interrelationships. Bureau of Immigration and Population Research, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  18. Eilat Y, Einav L (2004) Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis. Appl Econ 36:1315–1327CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Garín-Muňoz T, Amaral TP (2000) An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain. Appl Econ Lett 7:525–529CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Gil-Pareja S, Llorca-Vivero RF, Martinez-Serrano JA (2007) The impact of embassies and consulates on tourism. Tour Manage 28:355–360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Genç M, Gheasi M, Nijkamp P, Poot J (2012) The impact of immigration on international trade: a meta-analysis. In: Nijkamp P, Sahin M, Poot J (eds) Migration impact assessment, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK (forthcoming)Google Scholar
  22. Gheasi M, Nijkamp P, Rietveld P (2011) Migration and tourist flows. In: Matias Á, Nijkamp P, Sarmento M (eds) Tourism economics: impact analysis. Springer, Berlin/HeidelbergGoogle Scholar
  23. Gómez-Herrera E (2012) Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade. Emp Econ. doi: 10.1007/s00181-012-0576-2
  24. Gould DM (1994) Immigrant links to the home country: empirical implications for US bilateral trade flows. Rev Econ Stat 76:302–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Greene W (2009) Models for count data with endogenous participation. Emp Econ 36:133–173CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Guthrie HW (1961) Demand for tourists’ goods and services in a world market. Paper Proc Region Sci Assoc 7:159–175CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hollander G (1982) “Determinants of demand for travel to and from Australia.” Working paper no. 26. Bureau od Industry Economics, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  28. Jungmittag A, Welfens PJJ (2009) Liberalization of EU telecommunications and trade; theory, gravity equation analysis and policy implications. Int Econ Econ Policy 6:23–39CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Keum K (2010) Tourism flows and trade theory: a panel data analysis with the gravity model. Ann Region Sci 44:541–557CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Khadaroo J, Seetanah B (2008) The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: a gravity model approach. Tour Manage 29:831–840CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Kimura F, Lee H-H (2006) The gravity equation in international trade in services. Rev World Econ 142:92–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Law D, Genç M, Bryant J (2009) Trade, diaspora and migration to New Zealand. NZIER working paper, 2009/04Google Scholar
  33. Leitão NC (2010) Does trade help to explain tourism demand? The case of Portugal. Theor Appl Econ 17:63–74Google Scholar
  34. Leitão NC, Shahbaz M (2012) Migration and tourism demand. Theor Appl Econ 19:39–48Google Scholar
  35. Li H, Song H, Witt SF (2005) Recent developments in econometric modelling and forecasting. J Travel Res 44:82–99CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Lim C (1997) Review of international tourism demand models. Ann Tour Res 24:835–849CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Pöyhönen P (1963) A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirt Arch 90:93–99Google Scholar
  38. Qiu H, Zhang J (1995) Determinants of tourist arrivals and expenditures in Canada. J Travel Res 34:43–49CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Seetaram N (2012) Immigration and international inbound tourism: empirical evidence from Australia. Tour Manage. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.02.010
  40. Seetaram N, Dwyer L (2009) Immigration and tourism demand in Australia: a panel data analysis. Anatolia Int J Tour Hosp Res 20:212–222Google Scholar
  41. Santos Silva JMC, Tenreyro S (2006) The log of gravity. Rev Econ Stat 88:641–658CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Smith AB, Toms JN (1978) Factors affecting demand for international travel to and from Australia. Bureau of Transport Economics, AGPS, CanberraGoogle Scholar
  43. Song H, Li G (2008) Tourism demand modelling and forecasting –a review of recent research. Tour Manage 29:203–220CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Song H, Witt SF, Li G (2008) The advanced econometrics of tourism demand. Routhledge, HobokenGoogle Scholar
  45. Stata (2009) Stata user’s guide, version 11. Stata Press, College StationGoogle Scholar
  46. Statistics New Zealand (2012) International travel and migration: February 2012. Statistics New Zealand, WellingtonGoogle Scholar
  47. Statistics New Zealand (2011) Tourism satellite account: 2011. Statistics New Zealand, WellingtonGoogle Scholar
  48. Tinbergen J (1962) Shaping the world economy. Twentieth Century Fund, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  49. Uysal M, Crompton JL (1985) An overview of approaches used to forecast tourism demand. J Travel Res 23:7–15Google Scholar
  50. Vietze C (2012) Cultural effects on inbound tourism into the USA: a gravity approach. Tour Econ 18:121–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Wagner D, Head K, Ries J (2002) Immigration and the trade of provinces. Scott J Polit Econ 49:507–525CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Walsh K (2008) Trade in services: does gravity hold? J World Trade 42:315–334Google Scholar
  53. White R, Tadesse B (2008) Immigrants, cultural distance and U.S. state-level exports of cultural products. N Am J Econ Finance 19:331–348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Williams AM, MHall C (2000) Tourism and migration: new relationships between production and consumption. Tour Geogr 2:5–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Winkelmann R (2008) Econometric analysis of count data, 5th edn. Springer, Berlin/HeidelbergGoogle Scholar
  56. Witt SF, Witt CA (1995) Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research. Int J Forecast 11:447–475CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Yang C-H, Lin H-L, Han C-C (2010) Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: the role of World Heritage Sites. Tour Manage 31:827–837CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zhang J, Jensen C (2007) Comparative advantage: explaining tourism flows. Ann Tour Res 54:223–243CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of OtagoDunedinNew Zealand

Personalised recommendations