Forecasting Tourism Demand for South Africa Using a Single Equation Causal Approach

  • Riëtte Louw
  • Andrea Saayman


International tourist arrivals to South Africa have increased significantly over the past 15 years and the country is ranked amongst the top thirty most popular destinations. It is therefore surprising that little research is available on forecasting tourism demand in South Africa. This article aims to expand on forecasting intercontinental tourism demand for South Africa by using a single equation causal approach. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, supplemented with an error correction term, are estimated for tourist arrivals from Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, South America, and the United Kingdom. In-sample (ex post) forecasts were performed and the forecasting accuracy evaluated.


Real Exchange Rate Mean Absolute Percentage Error Forecast Accuracy Error Correction Model Akaike Information Criterion 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of EconomicsNorth-West UniversityPotchefstroomSouth Africa

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