Advertisement

Modelling Tourism Demand in Portugal

  • Ana C. M. Daniel
  • Paulo M. M. Rodrigues
Chapter

Abstract

Tourism is an important economic activity of Portugal. According to preliminary data from the Portuguese Office for National Statistics (INE 2009), tourism generated in 2008 about 5% of the Economy’s Added Gross Value, corresponding to approximately 7.3 billion Euros. The 2008 Report on Competitiveness of Travel and Tourism, ranked Portugal 15th from a list of 130 countries in terms of tourism industry competitiveness. Overall, Portugal climbed 7 positions in relation to 2007 and 4 positions among all 27 EU countries (Portugal Digital 2008). Amador and Cabral (2009) present a detailed analysis of the services industry in Portugal and show that this positive evolution has occurred in this sector in general and reveals a comparative advantage in the travel and tourism industry.

Keywords

Conditional Variance Tourism Industry GARCH Model Exchange Rate Volatility Asymmetric Effect 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Amador J, Cabral S (2009) O Comércio Internacional de Serviços na Economia Portuguesa, Banco de Portugal. Boletim Económico, Outono 229–249Google Scholar
  2. Baum T, Lundtorp S (2001) Seasonality in tourism. Pergamon, LondonGoogle Scholar
  3. Bollerslev T (1986) Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. J Econom 31:307–327CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bollerslev T, Wooldridge JM (1992), Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in DynamicModels with Time Varying Covariances. Econometric Reviews 11:143–172Google Scholar
  5. Bollerslev T, Engle RF, Nelson DB (1994) ARCH models. In: Engle R, McFadden D (eds) Handbook of econometrics, vol IV. North Holland, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
  6. Chan F, Lim C, McAleer M (2005) Modelling multivariate international tourism demand and volatility. Tourism Manage 26:459–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J Am Stat Assoc 74:427–431CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Direcção Geral do Turismo (different years). O Turismo em.…, Direcção Geral do Turismo, LisbonGoogle Scholar
  9. Divino JA, McAleer M (2008) Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon. EI Report 2008-22, Erasmus University, RotterdamGoogle Scholar
  10. Engle RF (1982) Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of UK inflation. Econometrica 50:987–1008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Glosten LR, Jagannathan R, Runkle DE (1993) On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks. J Finance 48:1779–1801CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Instituto Nacional de Estatística (2009) Conta Satélite do Turismo (2007–2009). Informação à Comunicação Social, DestaqueGoogle Scholar
  13. Instituto Nacional de Estatística (different years) Estatísticas do Turismo. Instituto Nacional de Estatística, LisbonGoogle Scholar
  14. Kim S, Wong KF (2006) Effects of news shock on inbound tourist demand volatility in Korea. J Trav Res 44:457–466CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Li WK, Ling S, McAleer M (2002) Recent theoretical results for time series models with GARCH errors. J Econ Surv 16:245–269CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. McAleer M (2005) Automated inference and learning in modeling financial volatility. Economet Theor 21:232–261Google Scholar
  17. Nelson DB (1991) Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach. Econometrica 59:347–370CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Portugal Digital (1998) Portugal Ocupa o 15° Lugar, numa Lista de 130 Países, no Ranking de Competitividade do Turismo. Publication [online]. Portugal Digital, 2008 in URL http://www.ccilb.net.pt>03/2008
  19. Shareef R, McAleer M (2005) Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economics. Int J Tourism Res 7:313–333CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Shareef R, McAleer M (2007) Modelling the uncertainty in monthly international tourist arrivals to the Maldives. Tourism Manage 28:23–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Zakoian JM (1994) Threshold heteroskedasticity models. J Econ Dyn Control 18:931–944CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.ESTG – Instituto Politécnico da Guarda and CASEEGuardaPortugal
  2. 2.Department of Economic ResearchBanco de PortugalLisbonPortugal

Personalised recommendations